Ben's drafting techniques

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Ben's drafting techniques

Post by J-zizzle6519 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:40 pm

As a general manager in a competitive league like SBHL, drafting is a very important part of being that championship team. In my tenure with the SBHL boys, I have picked up some drafting habits that have translated to good results. These are the methods I use to draft successfully:

-At the start of the season, assign all your amateur scouts to “NHL Entry Draft”. Two of them should be assigned to your most needed position (sub category in “NHL Entry Draft”).
-Halfway through the season, take the best half of your amateur scouts and assign them to scout the players that interest you. Later we will discuss what to look for in a player and who you should be interested in based on your needs.
-At the end of the season (about in May), check the players in which you were interested. Anyone under 3 stars potential should be dropped at this point from the scouts. Probably don’t draft them unless in the later rounds (5th+) or if it’s a bad draft.
What to find in a player:

Offensive players: Forward wise, these are the ones that you should be looking for in the top rounds. Anyone that isn’t a “Checking forward”, a “Defensive forward” or heaven forbid an enforcer(!!!) has the potential to put up points in the higher levels. Again, there are exceptions. For defencemen, it doesn’t really matter the player type (unless again, an enforcer); they can be effective either way. Attributes to look for in offensive players are: Shooting, passing, stickhandling, off the puck, anticipation, speed and acceleration. In terms of report, I won’t get too much into detail because it can be quite hideous, but you should try to avoid players with consistency issues (especially in higher rounds). Generally, look for big reports; the more positives they have to say about the player, the better.
Defensive players: These can often drop in the draft. Like I was touching on earlier, if an equal or slightly worst offensive forward is available, take the offensive guy. What a lot of people don’t realize is that if the gap is immense, take the defensive guy. Important attributes for defensive players: Speed, acceleration, bravery (for the PK), teamwork, positioning, poke check, checking, hitting (While it’s good to have, isn’t necessary).

For all players, determination and work rate is basically a direct correlation to percentage of reaching potential. Usually I add up the two and divide them by 40, this will give you your percentage of succession. Anything under 40% should probably not be in the top 20.

Draft Day:
This should be a smooth process because you already sent in your list (right guys?!). When making your list, make sure to order your players not directly correlated to skill/potential, but also keeping in mind where the player is ranked. This is only strategic because what you want is to maximize value, and to do so efficiently without throwing a giant 75 player list at the poor people of management. Your list should start for the 3rd round, because all players of the top 2 rounds should be selected personally. For the 3rd round, you should have the best players of what you project will be 3rd to 4th round players drafted by other teams (To check how much league interest the player is getting, check in information. For example, if there are 3-4 GMs that have scouted him and he’s a good player, you should probably have him on the top of your list.) Your list should consist of about 30-40 players (keep in mind that most of them will be picked by other teams).

Often asked question: How to find gems?
Late round players that turn out to be 1st liners are players with a lot of imperfections at the draft. They are usually played that have the mold of an offensive player, but a lot of imperfections, for example: a winger with 11 wrist shot, 12 speed, 13 acceleration, 2 determination, 8 work rate, 5 passing and 2 positioning. Let’s call this imaginary player “Mike Hoffman”. The problem with drafting players with many imperfections is that either they end up being top 6s or absolute busts. Now, I’m not saying every 18 year old with these attributes will develop in a Mike Hoffman. Actually, according to my earlier success calculator, he has a sweet 25% chance of become the 2 star player the scouts are giving him! “Woah but Ben, Mike Hoffman isn’t a 2 star player?” This is because often, the star ratings aren’t fixed, they’re only an estimation made by the scouts. There's always that small chance a nothing prospect will become a good one (1 in 20 according to my findings) Let’s say he has a 5% chance of jumping to 4 or 5 stars, well that means that the chance that this “Mike Hoffman to be” has to become Mike Hoffman is actually a horrible 0.125% (25% x 5%). Now, if you draft a player that has the mold of 3rd-4th liner (9 passing, 11 speed, 12 acceleration, 7 wrister, 10 positioning, 10 work rate, 12 determination). This means that this player has a 55% chance of reaching his potential (which is of a 4th liner vs the other guy that his potential at the draft is of an ahler). So ask yourself, would you prefer having a 55% chance of having a 4th liner (with a small chance he will develop into a 3rd liner), or a player with a 0.125% of being a 1st liner? The morale of this paragraph is to not draft a player in the later rounds with the hopes that he will become that 1st liner. Just draft the best available player, this is your best hopes for maximizing value.

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