Hot Prospects: The official draft/youth/prospects thread

Discuss specific areas of EHM knowledge; such as players, trading, drafting, tactics, training, practice etc. Teach us what you've discovered or ask others for their thoughts.
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TurboJ
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Hot Prospects: The official draft/youth/prospects thread

Post by TurboJ » Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:33 pm

Hmm. Been looking at a lot of older threads and most people seem to say that prospects should stay at lower levels until they are about 22 years old. Well, my question is what's the harm of putting them up at a younger age? Talking about a good prospect here.

This one guy (C/LW) did 1 PPG for a year in U20 junior team in Sweden when he was 17 and again the same 18. Put him in ECHL and he did 90+ points at 18 y/o; next step AHL at 19-20 y/o -> did around 80 points per year with 7.7 average rating. I had a shortage of forwards so I brought him up to NHL (scouts all said he was ready) when he was still 20. Playing him on second line and second PP line too. He's done 22 points in his first 23 games in the NHL now, and avg. rating is 7.65.

Now, without doubt he can handle NHL now so that's not the question. The question is do I hurt his development this way. AND; if I end up having a player in the "wrong league" for whatever reason, and let's say it does affect their development, will that effect be permanent? Or if the players get bogged down, will they recover? FWIW I also feel it funny to have someone play AHL for three seasons if they are playing at around 8.5 AR level the whole time. Seems like a waste somehow.

What are your thoughts, guys? How about another prospect who's also 20 and putting out 1.7 points per game avg in the AHL (after almost 60 games played) but scouts are saying he's inconsistent.

I know in IRL the most talented players do get put to the NHL roster at 20 years old or maybe even 19. But what actually works best in EHM? Might the players lose motivation if they stay in AHL for too long? And how do you guys manage the contracts - if you have to keep players in the lower leagues for many years, that doesn't allow any room for new prospects...

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Hot Prospects: The official draft/youth/prospects thread

Post by Canadian Passport » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:39 am

TurboJ wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:33 pm
Hmm. Been looking at a lot of older threads and most people seem to say that prospects should stay at lower levels until they are about 22 years old. Well, my question is what's the harm of putting them up at a younger age? Talking about a good prospect here.
It depends on the player. Some can perform in the NHL right away and some can't. I think 22 years old is kinda arbitrary though. I don't trust 22 years old as a benchmark.
TurboJ wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:33 pm
Now, without doubt he can handle NHL now so that's not the question. The question is do I hurt his development this way. AND; if I end up having a player in the "wrong league" for whatever reason, and let's say it does affect their development, will that effect be permanent? Or if the players get bogged down, will they recover? FWIW I also feel it funny to have someone play AHL for three seasons if they are playing at around 8.5 AR level the whole time. Seems like a waste somehow.
From what I've seen players will progress well in the AHL even if they're NHL quality. When they're young. A benefit of playing a good player on your AHL team is success, that will benefit every player on that team.
TurboJ wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:33 pm
What are your thoughts, guys? How about another prospect who's also 20 and putting out 1.7 points per game avg in the AHL (after almost 60 games played) but scouts are saying he's inconsistent.
Depends on the player. I've had players who dominated the AHL but were horrible when I called them up.
TurboJ wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:33 pm
I know in IRL the most talented players do get put to the NHL roster at 20 years old or maybe even 19. But what actually works best in EHM? Might the players lose motivation if they stay in AHL for too long? And how do you guys manage the contracts - if you have to keep players in the lower leagues for many years, that doesn't allow any room for new prospects...
About 90% of my trades involve prospects. I focus a lot on organizational depth. If I have 50 players contracted I lose about 10 of them per year for various reasons. That leaves enough room to bring new players into the organization.

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Hot Prospects: The official draft/youth/prospects thread

Post by TurboJ » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:55 am

Thanks for the replies! I have noticed that prospects can be extremely inconsistent even on a yearly basis. I had three "five star" players in the AHL one season, all averaged more than 1 PPG and had around 8 avg rating. Then the next reason only one has 7 A/R and the other two have just 6. Very strange, but I guess the success of the team plays a big part in how the ratings act. It takes a rare kind of player who is able to constantly do well despite the team struggling and young guys aren't usually cut out for that.

This playthrough I am trying to allow more time for the prospects to develop, but inevitably I have to cut some off every year because I don't want to waste the next draft; the problem is sometimes it takes more than two years in the lower leagues before you will see if the player is going to make it. Hell, there are even guys who are complete pushovers at 22 y/o but then rack up 40 points a season in NHL when they're 27. But this is just like IRL, people are different and that makes the game exciting as the simulated people are also unique. In any case I feel like only about half of "first rounders" become real 1st line candidates. And, the hidden stats are so important.. There are guys who are consistently called "third line potential" but can do 95 points per year in the NHL. I wonder what scout quotes would indicate the best hidden attributes? It's funny how the leagues are full of players who look awesome attribute-wise, but do terribly in games. And vice versa. Feels like the attribute table really is 60% of the story at best.

FWIW Here's a report how the last prospects did.. The first 20-year old I mentioned earlier ended up scoring 60 points in his rookie season in NHL while only playing second line and almost no powerplay. Meanwhile the second guy who had been an absolute scoring monster since 14 years old (did 100+ point seasons back to back in OHL, then in ECHL and even in AHL) - this guy dropped to a "6" rated player on his second AHL season; scoring only a third of what he had scored all previous seasons... It would seem the "inconsistent" warnings really do mean something!

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Hot Prospects: The official draft/youth/prospects thread

Post by TurboJ » Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:48 pm

One first line prospect center. Starts well in AHL doing 7.6 a/r. Then each year his performance drops even while his attributes go up. Four years total until he's 23 and every year is worse than the last even though attributes go up significantly while this happens. And there isn't a big change in the quality or success of the AHL team either.

How is this explained? Lack of motivation because not called up? But I did call him up twice and he didn't do good at all. In any case, what would be an age at which players decline simply because they dont WANT to play in a farm team anymore?

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Hot Prospects: The official draft/youth/prospects thread

Post by TurboJ » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:44 pm

I do wonder... One of my young players, 22 y/o. Scouts all say his consistency and decision making need improving. Yet he was by far my best player in NHL playoffs, scoring 29 points in 17 games; 9.0 avr rating. His avg in reg. season was also 8+ and he did 1ppg avg. In the playoffs he far outperformed guys like Ovechkin and Seguin who were playing in first line together, no less. What gives? Does this mean some other hidden attribute is even more important than consistency and decision making? I mean, this guy has been one of the most consistent players I have and my forwards who I compare him to are pretty darn good.

You could think it's a fluke, but the Stanly Cup run performance was just spectacular, I don't know if it can be a fluke with such a streak of almost a hundred games.

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Post by philou21 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:12 pm

Even if consistency and decision making need improving that doesn't meam that those stats are low. It doesn't restrain the player from performing at all. Maybe his Important matches attribute is pretty good and even another one that I'm completely forgetting that can help in playoffs.

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Hot Prospects: The official draft/youth/prospects thread

Post by professorscribbles » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:01 pm

philou21 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:12 pm
Even if consistency and decision making need improving that doesn't meam that those stats are low. It doesn't restrain the player from performing at all. Maybe his Important matches attribute is pretty good and even another one that I'm completely forgetting that can help in playoffs.
Strictly speaking, a scout saying that explicitly DOES mean those stats are low, does it not? I was under the impression that when a scout says that about a stat, the attribute (hidden or otherwise) is a 7 or lower.

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Hot Prospects: The official draft/youth/prospects thread

Post by philou21 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:55 am

Yeah sorry...what I meant by low is like 2 or 3. If it's 7 it's still "decent". Some players can still perform even if they lack a good consistency.

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Post by TurboJ » Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:04 am

One more season simmed with this particular player. He was again extremely good at the playoffs and averaged 1.1 ppg for the entire season including playoffs. And still scouts are complaining about his consistency and decision making... Now two seasons straight with more than 1 ppg average while the guy is only 22-23 years old at the time. Twice he was instrumental in winning the cup and consistently scoring like a first line star forward even though he was only playing second line without a master playmaker helping him score. He also proved to be a very effective PK player, which begs the question about that poor decision making...

One idea I have is that because he is so well-rounded in all his attributes and both his offensive and defensive attributes are very strong, this might help with those subpar hidden attributes.

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Hot Prospects: The official draft/youth/prospects thread

Post by Canadian Passport » Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:12 am

TurboJ wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:04 am
One more season simmed with this particular player. He was again extremely good at the playoffs and averaged 1.1 ppg for the entire season including playoffs. And still scouts are complaining about his consistency and decision making...
If he's playing well forget about what the scouts say.

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Post by philou21 » Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:55 am

Yeah no need to focus too much on it anyway. If he performs well despite that you should be happy. :-D

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Post by TurboJ » Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:02 pm

I've a question about young players' willingness to stay with the team in NHL.

I have seen multiple times my top draft pick guys showing "unknown" future on their information tab, when normally players would show "happy to stay with the team". This uncertainty about their future seems to correlate highly with the players wanting to re-sign with the team after their current contract. Sometimes the players are unwilling to sign to a new contract even if they have the "loyal" attribute, team is doing well and they have a big role in the team.

This is mostly a problem with star prospects. They might play top line minutes, they may play on 1st PP unit, they may be succeeding very well both on individual and team level. But they don't show being happy to be on the team.


On my current save I have two young forwards who are destined to be franchise players. Both are in top 5 in league scoring and playing on top 2 lines always. Both just won a Stanley cup last year while on their entry level contracts. One of them even went as far as to request a trade in the middle of playoffs while on his way onto the Conn Smythe tropy as a 20 y/o player. I had offered him big contracts throughout his last entry level year and he would refuse. Then in the playoffs, he posts 1.5 PPG while already being over 1 PPG overall on his regular season career. He says he's unhappy with his contract although it's still his entry level contract and there is no possible way to pay him more. Now of course he will sign a new contract asking for less money than I was previously offering. I still pay him more just in case, and he signs and takes back his request to be traded.

The other guy is also surpassing 1 PPG avg. after his first 100 NHL games while only playing 2nd line minutes. He's in top 5 scoring in the league. He gets around 17 minutes ice time per game and has a 7.5 avg rating. Future is unknown. Re-signing issues looming.

There are also two young D-man stars, who have the same situation. Lots of ice time, lots of success, Stanley cup on their belt while still on their entry level contracts, and both are "unknown" about future.

So, why is it that my best prospects are not happy to play in my organization? Coaches are more than fine, ice time is very good, player and team success is excellent and I'm paying them more than they request. Also none of these players play below 2nd line.

What's the issue and how to fix it? Could it be that I have too many stars on my team? Maybe I'm training these guys too hard?

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Post by TurboJ » Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:56 pm

One question. Is there any risk in allowing top prospects going RFA after their entry level contract? I am very much prepared to match any offer sheet if that happens. My thinking is I should be able to sign a more realistic contract with these guys if they enter the (restricted) free agency. Re-signing top prospects while on the roster always seems to get expensive and the AI for some reason gets a discount on their players.

So I guess I mean to ask, will the players end up disliking me for allowing them to go RFA? And if there is an arbitration hearing, will that effect the players' opinion of me?

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Post by TurboJ » Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:32 pm

Another question. What effect do international games have on players' development? Logically I would think they would improve the 'big games' attribute and pressure etc. But is this the reality? What about the junior world championship tournaments - do they still have an effect on player development even though the game doesn't keep track of player statistics regarding the junior international games?

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Post by nino33 » Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:17 pm

TurboJ wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:56 pm
So I guess I mean to ask, will the players end up disliking me for allowing them to go RFA? And if there is an arbitration hearing, will that effect the players' opinion of me?
Alas I've got nothing helpful for you besides my guess would be it could affect their mood; thinking back to when I've played (mostly I'm editing or testing), I don't recall letting RFAs go to free agency (that I cared about) or ever having to deal with an arbitration hearing



TurboJ wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:32 pm
Another question. What effect do international games have on players' development? Logically I would think they would improve the 'big games' attribute and pressure etc. But is this the reality? What about the junior world championship tournaments - do they still have an effect on player development even though the game doesn't keep track of player statistics regarding the junior international games?
I'm not sure how to determine what specifically affects the development of Mental Attributes like Pressure (they don't seem to have any direct/significant connection to CA like Technical Attributes do); I've always been under the impression their development is coded in such a way that it's "separate" from the other Attribute development - the testing data - Forwards (Player Roles & Attributes) thread shows this, as the Mental Attributes are close to the same regardless of the CA https://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/v ... 6&start=50

Personally I wouldn't connect participating in international play as an automatic improvement for Pressure (not in the same way participating in practice improves Technical Attributes; if you don't handle pressure well does repeatedly being in pressure situations mean you'll very likely get better like you would practicing the wrist shot?).

On the other hand having some "big game experience" would be beneficial and not meaningless...the Important Matches Attribute doesn't develop the same way the Pressure Attribute does: the EHM:EA Attribute testing thread has testing results that showed Pressure was somewhat likely to change but didn't change very much and Important Matches changed/developed "normally" - so maybe what effect there is shows up more in the Important Matches?


As for a general answer on the effect on player development, I would think "yes, international has an effect" (all competitions have a League Reputation value which could be used; i.e.maybe the game internally keeps track of games played and league/tournament Reputation) - I just don't know how one would determine the detailed specifics of the effect (the controlling for variables task seems quite the challenge to overcome)

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Post by TurboJ » Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:33 am

Thanks Nino, I will look into the test information you provided. Nice of you to post links!

..........................

I'm wondering about prospect defelopment questions again. I decided to sign a #6 overall winger one year after the draft. He'd been posting noticeably more than 1 PPG in the OHL for two straight years at that point. Put him on my second line and second PP. One thing is, he is thriving (even leading the league for a while) and competing in point production with all my star players while still being 19 years of age. Another thing is, there's been zero attribute growth in the first 8 months of him being on the team.

It would feel strange to send to juniors a player who has posted 59 points in 48 games on his rookie year. But theoretically I could be hurting his development by playing him too young, or could I? It's not like all young stars have huge growth on their first year, but this guy doesn't seem to grow at all. Then again, according to his performance numbers, he hardly needs to at this point.

I'm wondering about how to determine who I should play on my NHL roster, having many good prospects. I have noticed that some players will start to lose motivation after spending two years in the AHL and also if they play multiple years in the junior leagues. What I don't know is how to spot when a player isn't best fit to play in the NHL in case he's putting up good numbers and avg. rating. A player might do well, I guess, but still be slowed down development-wise if having too big a role when young.

Any words of wisdom?

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Post by philou21 » Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:13 am

If he performs like that, I wouldn't worry that much honestly. If he wasn't NHL ready, he would have average ratings and stats. Maybe during the second season he will slow down but knowing EHM I doubt it.

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Post by TurboJ » Mon Jul 22, 2019 5:52 pm

philou21 wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:13 am
If he performs like that, I wouldn't worry that much honestly. If he wasn't NHL ready, he would have average ratings and stats. Maybe during the second season he will slow down but knowing EHM I doubt it.
Interestingly he's not slowed down but neither has he grown any since I signed him all the way up until half of his second NHL season. No growth whatsoever, but still finished with 90+ points his rookie year and keeping the same pace on his second year. It's funny how sometimes the actual visible attributes of players count for little. But, I guess this guy would struggle on a more average team, seeing as his red stats are all on the defensive skills. He doesn't need to do that much defense when his team is top of the league I guess, being a scoring winger and all. But even so it seems weird that you can compete for top scoring player's title in the NHL while having attributes that would have other players struggling on AHL level...

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Post by Manimal » Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:44 pm

His atts will grow in the off-season

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Post by TurboJ » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:59 pm

One thing that's always bugged me playing in the NHL is that players who have played in the CHL (QMJHL + OHL + WHL) can't be sent to my AHL affiliate team before they turn 20. This is a pretty big annoyance as I have no control on how they are played in the junior leagues. In the AHL I can at least affect the roster to improve their chances of getting ice time. (I don't take control of the AHL team ever as that would just be too tedious for me).

Now. I know there are exceptions to this rule. I just drafted one Canadian player who'd played the previous season in WHL and I let him stay there for the first post-draft year. When he turned 19 I figured that he might just be NHL ready so I signed him for an ELC. He was still 19, in fact not turning 20 until next year when he arrived to my NHL team. Despite this I was allowed to send him to my AHL affiliate in the autumn when he still had 6+ months left before turning 20.

So can someone explain how the CHL rules actually work for North American players, or all players if nationality doesn't matter. Why is it that some players can be sent to AHL before 20 and some cannot. Or am I having a bug where the game lets me use the AHL option even if I technically shouldn't be able to? And how do I know if a player is eligible to be sent to AHL upon signing him if he's below 20 and has CHL rights?

Thanks.

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Post by TurboJ » Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:50 am

TurboJ wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:59 pm
One thing that's always bugged me..........

........So can someone explain how the CHL rules actually work......
Hopefully someone can clear this up for me :-? I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who finds these rules difficult to understand.

Now there is another question too. Again, playing as an NHL team. Year 2032 and I've just drafted two 17-18 y/o Russian players with a KHL contract. Both have a regular contract with no foreign offer / relegation clauses or anything else. The strange thing is this: Naturally the game informs me that a contract I offer to these players can only take effect after their current contracts.

But. Both players are contracted to the KHL teams until 2034 without any special clauses. I'm trying to sign them when it's still June 2032. The game tells me they would be available to play for me in spring 2034. BUT. I'm only able to offer them a three year contract (normal entry level contract) that ENDS in 2034. So the contract would be 2031-32,2032-33 and 2033-34. But their current contract runs till 2034! I don't get this. If they sign with me, does the KHL contract somehow get overturned despite no release clauses whatsoever? Or does this mean I can't offer these guys a real ELC?

The idea for me to sign them early would be to get the contract in before they can sign any further extension with their KHL teams. Frustrating not knowing how things work even after 1000+ gameplay hours :**

*** edit. It would seem that recently drafted young players from KHL can be directly signed despite what the game informs me. I would assume this is true when the KHL is also still in the off-season. I don't know if the same applies after the players have played the next season in KHL though. If they have a two-year contract going without any release clauses, can you still sign them after they've already completed the first season of their current contract?

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Hot Prospects: The official draft/youth/prospects thread

Post by Rough Neck » Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:21 pm

Turbo, to answer your ahl question if a player turns 20 during the year (for example 19 turning 20 in February) they are eligible to play in the AHL. I believe the rule with European teams is they can play because they may have played pro already in Europe or it may be because the CHL has a clause on players that exempts them from the AHL, but Euro teams do not.

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