EHM:EA Attribute Testing - Major Junior

[nino33]

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Interesting stuff Nino.
Just a question, how are you parsing your data? Are you going through every NHL player and seeing what their skills are, or are you using something else to find it?
Because if I knew how it worked, I might do a test for the CHL and see if the CHL skill levels might be lower than they should be. It's generally easier to check that due to the maximum player stint is 4-5 years...

If CHL levels are (too) low, and the NHL levels are (too) high, then maybe it means that the development curve is not tuned rightly enough. Sure, most CHL players will never be NHL players, let alone stars. And NHL talent should be around 20 years of age to even be ready for that level (unless it's generational talent), but still it might be interesting to find out how the attribute levels are among CHL players.

Here's some data from Major Junior using Test 1 (year 2030)

1420 players, average CA 61.5
two players with a 140 CA (and both with a 140 PA too!), one player with a 128 CA (and a 186 PA)

• 110-122 CA 32 players
  100-109 CA 13 players
  90-99 CA 40 players
  80-89 CA 81 players
  70-79 CA 183 players
  60-69 CA 435 players
  50-59 CA 312 players
  40-49 CA 236 players
  30-39 CA 66 players
  under 30 CA 19 players

And looking at the PA for the same 1420 players

• 180-189 PA 2 players
  170-179 PA 2 players
  160-169 PA 3 players
  150-159 PA 9 players
  140-149 PA 23 players
  130-139 PA 49 players
  120-129 PA 53 players
  110-119 PA 69 players
  100-109 PA 65 players
  90-99 PA 292 players
  80-89 PA 305 players
  70-79 PA 371 players
  60-69 PA 140 players

And here's some Attribute averages for the forwards broken up by age
First number in column header is Birth Year, number in brackets is number of players

Center
320 centers, average CA 63.5

	2010 (60)	2011 (89)	2012 (106)	2013 (64)
Aggression	5.8	6.6	6.7	5.6
Anticipation	8.9	9.1	8.9	9.7
Bravery	8.8	9.5	9.1	8.8
Consistency	10.1	9.5	10.7	11.0
Decisions	6.4	6.7	6.8	6.2
Dirtiness	10.7	10.5	9.7	10.7
Agitation	10.2	10.6	10.6	10.7
Flair	9.0	9.2	9.4	9.5
Imp. Matches	10.8	10.6	9.6	9.6
Influence	8.5	8.7	9.1	9.6
Teamwork	9.6	9.8	9.5	9.5
Creativity	8.7	8.7	9.0	9.2
Work Rate	9.6	10.1	9.8	10.2

	----------	----------	----------	----------
Acceleration	11.2	10.7	9.8	10.1
Agility	7.6	6.8	7.2	7.5
Balance	8.4	7.9	7.7	6.9
Speed	11.5	10.6	10.2	10.3

	-----	-----	-----	-----
Fighting	3.1	3.7	3.3	2.4
Hitting	4.2	4.5	4.4	3.4
Injury Proneness	10.8	10.8	10.4	9.4
Natural Fitness	7.0	7.3	6.8	7.0
Stamina	13.0	12.9	11.9	10.8
Strength	9.5	10.5	9.3	8.6

	-----	-----	-----	-----
Checking	5.0	5.1	4.9	4.6
Deflections	8.3	8.8	8.4	8.2
Deking	7.4	6.8	6.9	7.3
Faceoffs	9.6	9.8	9.4	9.0
Getting Open	9.1	9.3	8.6	8.5
Passing	8.1	8.3	8.1	7.6
Pokecheck	4.3	4.5	4.7	4.2
Positioning	4.5	4.6	4.9	4.5
Slapshot	7.5	7.7	6.9	7.7
Stickhandling	6.8	6.6	6.9	6.4
Wristshot	8.8	9.1	8.4	8.5

Winger
498 wingers, average CA 61.3

	2010 (99)	2011 (146)	2012 (166)	2013 (83)
Aggression	6.4	6.5	7.1	5.7
Anticipation	9.0	9.0	9.2	9.6
Bravery	8.9	9.3	9.6	9.2
Consistency	10.8	9.8	10.3	11.0
Decisions	6.3	6.9	7.0	6.6
Dirtiness	10.0	10.0	10.6	10.0
Agitation	10.8	10.8	10.3	10.9

	----------	----------	----------	----------
Flair	9.8	9.2	9.5	9.6
Imp. Matches	11.1	9.9	10.1	9.7
Influence	8.1	9.0	8.7	9.2
Teamwork	9.6	9.3	9.3	9.1
Creativity	8.5	8.7	9.0	9.0
Work Rate	9.4	10.2	10.1	9.7

	-----	-----	-----	-----
Acceleration	10.7	10.4	9.6	9.2
Agility	6.9	7.2	7.3	7.2
Balance	8.0	8.2	7.5	6.9
Speed	11.0	10.0	9.5	9.6

	-----	-----	-----	-----
Fighting	3.5	4.6	4.5	3.7
Hitting	3.5	4.3	4.2	3.2
Injury Proneness	10.7	10.7	10.2	10.2
Natural Fitness	6.7	7.2	7.1	6.8
Stamina	13.2	12.6	11.7	10.9
Strength	10.7	11.3	9.9	8.8

	-----	-----	-----	-----
Checking	3.7	4.4	4.2	3.7
Deflections	8.6	8.9	8.8	8.5
Deking	7.3	7.1	7.2	7.5
Faceoffs	2.1	2.5	2.2	2.0
Getting Open	9.2	8.5	8.2	8.4
Passing	7.1	7.5	6.7	6.4
Pokecheck	3.4	3.8	3.7	3.3
Positioning	3.8	4.2	4.0	3.6
Slapshot	8.3	8.2	7.5	8.3
Stickhandling	5.9	8.5	6.4	6.7
Wristshot	8.6	8.6	8.5	8.8

[nino33]

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Defenseman
486 defensemen, average CA 60.6

	2010 (98)	2011 (134)	2012 (228)	2013 (25)
Aggression	8.2	8.5	8.9	8.0
Anticipation	6.4	6.8	7.2	7.2
Bravery	9.0	9.4	9.2	10.1
Consistency	9.9	9.9	10.7	10.2
Decisions	8.4	8.8	8.5	9.7
Dirtiness	9.9	10.3	10.6	10.4
Agitation	11.0	10.3	10.4	12.7
Flair	8.3	8.6	8.6	8.9
Imp. Matches	11.1	10.7	10.3	9.5
Influence	8.5	8.8	8.5	9.9
Teamwork	8.6	9.6	9.2	10.7
Creativity	5.9	6.7	6.7	7.5
Work Rate	9.6	10.7	10.1	11.6

	----------	----------	----------	----------
Acceleration	8.5	8.9	8.6	8.8
Agility	6.7	6.9	6.9	6.8
Balance	10.6	10.2	9.1	9.8
Speed	8.6	8.9	8.8	9.0

	-----	-----	-----	-----
Fighting	3.1	3.4	3.5	4.4
Hitting	8.8	9.0	8.0	9.7
Injury Proneness	10.4	10.1	10.1	9.0
Natural Fitness	6.5	6.5	7.0	7.3
Stamina	13.6	12.7	11.7	11.2
Strength	13.8	13.1	10.8	11.1

	-----	-----	-----	-----
Checking	9.1	9.3	8.7	9.5
Deflections	2.6	2.8	3.1	3.2
Deking	4.1	4.7	5.0	4.7
Faceoffs	1.7	1.8	1.8	1.8
Getting Open	4.1	4.5	4.8	4.6
Passing	6.0	6.8	6.9	6.9
Pokecheck	7.6	8.8	7.9	8.2
Positioning	8.8	9.4	8.7	10.2
Slapshot	3.7	4.0	3.8	4.6
Stickhandling	5.3	5.6	5.8	5.5
Wristshot	3.3	3.3	3.7	3.8

[nino33]

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Goaltender
116 goalies, average CA 60.3

	2010 (30)	2011 (43)	2012 (39)	2013 (4)
Aggression	7.3	7.3	7.5	7.3
Anticipation	4.6	5.0	5.1	5.5
Bravery	9.1	9.3	8.6	11.3
Consistency	10.2	11.0	11.5	8.3
Decisions	9.6	9.6	10.0	10.3
Dirtiness	10.2	10.4	11.5	11.8
Agitation	10.0	10.5	10.8	4.5
Flair	5.2	5.2	5.4	11.8
Imp. Matches	11.0	10.9	10.2	9.3
Influence	8.0	8.3	8.0	10.8
Teamwork	8.8	8.9	10.1	11.8
Work Rate	8.9	8.9	10.4	11.8

	----------	----------	----------	----------
Acceleration	3.6	4.1	4.6	5.0
Agility	14.3	14.6	12.7	14.3
Balance	8.2	8.0	8.1	8.8
Speed	3.4	3.9	4.2	3.5

	-----	-----	-----	-----
Fighting	1.9	1.9	2.2	2.5
Injury Proneness	10.0	9.8	10.7	11.3
Natural Fitness	7.1	7.2	7.1	7.5
Stamina	12.9	12.8	11.5	12.8
Strength	3.9	4.0	4.6	3.0

	-----	-----	-----	-----
Passing	5.4	5.5	5.4	6.0
Pokecheck	6.6	7.2	6.7	9.3
Positioning	10.6	10.2	10.5	11.5
Stickhandling	5.5	5.0	5.9	6.3
One 0n Ones	7.8	8.0	8.4	8.3
Blocker	8.2	8.2	8.1	8.8
Glove	7.6	8.0	7.9	9.3
Rebounds	6.2	6.0	6.9	8.3
Recovery	5.5	6.1	5.3	5.8
Reflexes	8.1	8.1	8.7	10.0

[nino33]

Some initial thoughts...

• for most Attributes there isn't a lot of variance between the different age groups. Even though each year is a different group of players (not the same group progressing year by tear), I still expected to see a more obvious growth progression on many/most but I don't.....but I'm not so sure that the way it is is a bad thing; I think it's probably very realistic that many/most players of those different ages are of similar skill level.....but it sure seems like the younger players are "slightly better" most of the time, which is odd)
  
  defensemen have extremely weak shots!
  
  seems surprising to me that goaltenders Aggression Attribute would be higher than their Anticipation

As I posted in this related thread http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... 81#p198481 I started another long term test (as there have been a couple/few updates since I did the testing being referenced thus far).....but it takes many days to sim (as I always sim with all Leagues selected, a Full Database and everything at Full Detail; started yesterday in September 2014, currently twentyone hours later and the sim's in February 2017)

[deknegt]

The median CA lying between 60-69 and the PA between 80-89 does surprise me in a few ways.
Mostly the lack of progression between seasons is very dissapointing, and taking the NHL test into account it really shows that players only really start getting much better once they've already moved on from the CHL and into the big leagues... Or this could mean that CHL player aren't progressing fast enough, perhaps foreign talents from the European leagues have the same issues, or perhaps they dont?

And the fact that more than 500 of the kids are below 60CA means that the quality level is also pretty darn low. Sure, most kids are never gonna be NHL material, but you'd think that players of such low skill level wouldn't even make it into the CHL?

Also I'm not sure what the average CA/PA is for NHL players, but if i would draw the line at 140+ then it would mean 49 CHL players are NHL-talented every CHL generation. That feels like it's awfully low because the CHL is the main feeder league into the NHL since forever. After the CHL there's the NCAA and Europe, but they are significantly less prominent...

Personally I do approve of there only being 2 180-189 players, simply because I feel anything beyond 180 constitutes as superstar-level talent, or even generational really. 190+ shouldn't be in there (and it isn't) because it's literally reserved for potential best-ever, that's Gretzky levels.

Still very enlightening, and maybe this kinda tells the story that the NHL eventually pans out right talent wise, the growth happens too little in the CHL.

Naturally, I am really interested in the super-test

[nino33]

Or this could mean that CHL player aren't progressing fast enough,,,,, the growth happens too little in the CHL

I don't understand why you think they're not progressing enough - what do you base your opinion on?

I think a talented 17 year old and a less talented (but older/bigger/wiser) 19 or 20 year old likely do seem to have the same visible talent in Major Junior, but the more talented player will continue to progress.....it's actually very rare for a teenager to play in the NHL, and playing at 20 or 21 isn't that common either

I wonder if more realistic development is causing some to complain because they're used to/want EHM players to immediately succeed in the NHL from Major Junior (EHM07 had way to many young players develop way to quickly).....if a player is going to develop from his late teens into his late twenties, I think most Attributes being in the 8-12 range in his late teens makes sense to me (in general I would expect 10-14 in his early twenties, and 12-16 in his mid/late twenties)

Mostly the lack of progression between seasons is very dissapointing

They're different "draft classes" and so not the best example of progression; looking at averages you're not seeing that there are top players/Attributes every year (IMO you're seeing the idea that a talented 17 year old and a bigger/stronger/wiser 19 year old are similar skill level players in Major Junior)

And the fact that more than 500 of the kids are below 60CA means that the quality level is also pretty darn low.

500 out of 1420 is 35% of the CHL....you think it's a problem that 35% of the players are below average?
20 man roster x 60 teams = 1200 players.....based on CA almost half the players being referenced wouldn't be on a gameday roster

Sure, most kids are never gonna be NHL material, but you'd think that players of such low skill level wouldn't even make it into the CHL?

I think if you look into it you'll find many/most kids that make the CHL don't perform at a high level there! HaHa

When you look at the Top-Good-Average-Poor ranges for Bantam, Midget, Junior B and Junior A (Leagues below Major Junior) in connection with Major Junior, along with Leagues like European Junior, USHL and NCAA, I think the ranges are actually pretty good)

I'm not sure what the average CA/PA is for NHL players, but if i would draw the line at 140+ then it would mean 49 CHL players are NHL-talented every CHL generation. That feels like it's awfully low because the CHL is the main feeder league into the NHL since forever.

With my retro work I've been entering in future/historical draft classes, and my "cutoff" is generally 200 NHL GP.....and I get 50-60 players a year who meet the criteria (worldwide/all Leagues), so around 50 players seems correct to me

I am really interested in the super-test

Super-test? I started a second test, but it's the same as all my tests (I always select all Leagues on enhanced, Full Database and All Detail)