NHL 2012/13 Updating - Volunteers Needed!

[batdad]

We absolutely cannot have overpowered Leafs. The world will explode if they are even close to the playoffs.

[archibalduk]

We absolutely cannot have overpowered Leafs. The world will explode if they are even close to the playoffs.

They made it to the Eastern finals in my test.

[batdad]

Yeah not good. From what Daelh has said about the manimal db being unrealistic, he would/should not like that too much.

[kadri43]

BTW guys the leafs have a good team. except for the goalie James Reimer. They have on of the better offensive team and a very good defense. i'm so excited to play at manimal 5.0

[smokey]

BTW guys the leafs have a good team. except for the goalie James Reimer. They have on of the better offensive team and a very good defense. i'm so excited to play at manimal 5.0

They missed the playoffs for a seventh year in a row last year, finished with one of the worst records in team history and only a handful of legit nhl quality players. Besides Reimer played less games than Gustavsson, so no, I wouldn't blame Reimer alone, and although they managed to score a few goals above league average I'd still rate the current roster mediocre at best. The only thing Leafs fans can be happy about last year, was the fact that Montreal sucked even more. That and that one fight where Brown dropped Newbury in style.

[batdad]

Get real Kadri. They are a product of what they have. Kessel, and the like do NOT score if playing for a good team. Why? Because 2nd line or 3rd line and then also not getting the top PP time. McArthur is a bad 2nd liner on a bad team. Move him to a good team and he is.....Mason Raymond. A guy who cannot play because he has no defensive capability...and cannot crack the top two lines.

The only player this team has....oh wait...I dunno. No oone.

If....and I mean if....they get Luongo without having to give up too much from their roster...they might and I mean MIGHT make the playoffs.

The team is NOT very good Kadri, you need to give your head a shake.

[archibalduk]

I have transferred Daelh's ratings from his DB to the Manimal DB (all attributes other than CAs/PAs, Def/Off Roles, Reps and any attributes altered by the Realism Patch) and have been running a few sims to compare how the Manimal v5 DB runs with and without Daelh's ratings. Due to only having limited time (we want to get the Manimal DB out asap) I have been concentrating on comparing overall team performances rather than individual player performances.

I'll post a table later which compares how the unmodified Manimal and the Daelh Manimal DBs compare (I have simmed the first season three times with each DB). Generally speaking, there are pros and cons with each DB. The thing that really stood out for me with Daelh's ratings is that Toronto are too strong and the Devils and Flyers are far too weak. Invariably, Toronto made it into the Conference Finals and the Flyers would finish dead last in the Eastern Conference (the Devils would finish roughly 10/11th in the Conference). On the other hand, it seems that other teams with Daelh's ratings perform more realistically. Additionally, Bruins72 mentioned that he liked how some players who typically over-perform in the Manimal DB have been toned down by Daelh.

Bruins72 has come up with the suggestion that we take the best parts of Daehl's DB and merge only those parts into the Manimal DB. Hopefully by doing this, we can take the best bits from each DB.

[Sushamiboy]

On the other hand, it seems that other teams with Daelh's ratings perform more realistically. Additionally, Bruins72 mentioned that he liked how some players who typically over-perform in the Manimal DB have been toned down by Daelh.

I'm a huge fan of the Manimal DBs but I had one issue similar to the Original DBs. Manimals winner of the Marleau award for most overrated player who always does too well has got to be Ovechkin. With of course Backstrom as runner up. Don't get me wrong, I think Ovi is good, but never will he rival Gretzky for all-time points. In almost every game with the newest DB he finished with 2000pts or above. I may be doing something wrong but that seems ludicrous to me.

[archibalduk]

I think for every DB there is almost always somebody who could win the Marleau Award (great name, btw!). I agree that some players have been overrated in Manimal DB, but this is really an artefact from the original DB where far too many players were given high CAs/ratings.

From what I've seen with Daehl's ratings imported into the Manimal v5 DB, things are much improved generally. In the three single season sims I have done, Ovechkin was between 9th-13th in regular season pts scoring with between 97-102 pts. There's actually some nice variety with Daehl's ratings. Here are the top 15 from each of my three sims:

Code: Select all

Pos   Player                   Team                     GP     P      
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1st   Brad Richards            Rangers                 82     120    
2nd   Bobby Ryan               Ducks                   81     116    
3rd   Anze Kopitar             Kings                   82     116    
4th   Sidney Crosby            Penguins                82     114    
5th   Marian Gaborik           Rangers                 81     113    
6th   Rick Nash                Rangers                 82     111    
7th   Drew Stafford            Sabres                  82     109    
8th   Alexander Syomin         Hurricanes              77     108    
9th   James Neal               Penguins                82     105    
10th  Alexander Ovechkin       Capitals                77     102    
11th  Patrick Sharp            Blackhawks              80     102    
12th  Eric Fehr                Capitals                79     100    
13th  Evgeny Malkin            Penguins                82     100    
14th  Ilya Kovalchuk           Devils                  82     99     
15th  Steven Stamkos           Lightning               82     99   


Pos   Player                   Team                     GP     P      
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1st   Jeff Carter              Kings                   81     117    
2nd   Ryan Getzlaf             Ducks                   82     113    
3rd   Jeff Skinner             Hurricanes              82     105    
4th   Martin Havlat            Sharks                  82     104    
5th   Corey Perry              Ducks                   71     103    
6th   Anze Kopitar             Kings                   76     103    
7th   Ilya Kovalchuk           Devils                  82     101    
8th   Jonathan Toews           Blackhawks              79     101    
9th   Alexander Ovechkin       Capitals                74     100    
10th  Patrick Sharp            Blackhawks              82     100    
11th  Nicklas Backstrom        Capitals                82     100    
12th  Eric Staal               Hurricanes              74     100    
13th  Marian Gaborik           Rangers                 77     98     
14th  Phil Kessel              Maple Leafs             82     94     
15th  Rick Nash                Rangers                 81     94 


Pos   Player                   Team                     GP     P      
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1st   Jonathan Toews           Blackhawks              82     115    
2nd   Ryan Getzlaf             Ducks                   76     110    
3rd   Anze Kopitar             Kings                   82     109    
4th   Bobby Ryan               Ducks                   81     107    
5th   Jason Spezza             Senators                82     106    
6th   Ilya Kovalchuk           Devils                  74     105    
7th   Jeff Carter              Kings                   79     104    
8th   Patrick Marleau          Sharks                  80     102    
9th   Thomas Vanek             Sabres                  82     102    
10th  Corey Perry              Ducks                   79     102    
11th  Steven Stamkos           Lightning               74     101    
12th  Nicklas Backstrom        Capitals                82     99     
13th  Alexander Ovechkin       Capitals                79     97     
14th  Joe Thornton             Sharks                  77     97     
15th  Sidney Crosby            Penguins                81     96

Now I've taken a closer look at the team performances with Daelh's DB, teams are generally playing close to how they did in the 2011/12 season (bearing in mind the DB uses the 2012/13 rosters). The exceptions being just a handful of teams (such as the Flyers, Devils and Leafs like I mentioned before). Here is a table which shows the average pct for each team over three single season sims of the Daelh-modified Manimal DB and an unmodified Manimal DB in comparison to the real life 2011/12 pcts. The table shows how close each DB is to the real life performance - e.g. in the Manimal DB, the pct for the Rangers 0.011 less than the real life pct (which was 0.665).


Eastern Conference
[table][tr][th]Team[/th][th]IRL 2011/12[/th][th]Daelh[/th][th]Manimal[/th][th]Closest[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]NYR[/td][td]0.665[/td][td]0.022[/td][td]-0.011[/td][td]M[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PIT[/td][td]0.659[/td][td]-0.072[/td][td]-0.068[/td][td]M[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PHI[/td][td]0.628[/td][td]-0.185[/td][td]-0.094[/td][td]M[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BOS[/td][td]0.622[/td][td]-0.089[/td][td]-0.130[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NJD[/td][td]0.622[/td][td]-0.067[/td][td]-0.061[/td][td]M[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]FLA[/td][td]0.573[/td][td]-0.081[/td][td]-0.140[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]WAS[/td][td]0.561[/td][td]0.014[/td][td]-0.033[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]OTT[/td][td]0.561[/td][td]-0.100[/td][td]-0.100[/td][td]-[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BUF[/td][td]0.543[/td][td]0.065[/td][td]0.130[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]WIN[/td][td]0.512[/td][td]0.041[/td][td]0.045[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]TBL[/td][td]0.512[/td][td]-0.022[/td][td]0.029[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CAR[/td][td]0.500[/td][td]0.175[/td][td]0.120[/td][td]M[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]TOR[/td][td]0.488[/td][td]0.089[/td][td]-0.065[/td][td]M[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NYI[/td][td]0.482[/td][td]-0.010[/td][td]0.032[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MTL[/td][td]0.476[/td][td]0.085[/td][td]0.095[/td][td]D[/td][/tr][/table]

Western Conference
[table][tr][th]Team[/th][th]IRL 2011/12[/th][th]Daelh[/th][th]Manimal[/th][th]Closest[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]VAN[/td][td]0.677[/td][td]-0.014[/td][td]-0.026[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]STL[/td][td]0.665[/td][td]-0.065[/td][td]-0.086[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NSH[/td][td]0.634[/td][td]-0.108[/td][td]-0.205[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]DET[/td][td]0.622[/td][td]-0.112[/td][td]0.043[/td][td]M[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CHI[/td][td]0.616[/td][td]0.016[/td][td]0.012[/td][td]M[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PHX[/td][td]0.591[/td][td]-0.063[/td][td]-0.172[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]SJS[/td][td]0.585[/td][td]0.023[/td][td]0.031[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]LAK[/td][td]0.579[/td][td]0.090[/td][td]0.157[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CGY[/td][td]0.549[/td][td]-0.002[/td][td]0.024[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]DAL[/td][td]0.543[/td][td]-0.139[/td][td]-0.106[/td][td]M[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]COL[/td][td]0.537[/td][td]-0.086[/td][td]-0.132[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MIN[/td][td]0.494[/td][td]0.045[/td][td]0.032[/td][td]M[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ANA[/td][td]0.488[/td][td]0.049[/td][td]0.061[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]EDM[/td][td]0.451[/td][td]0.026[/td][td]0.077[/td][td]D[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CLB[/td][td]0.396[/td][td]-0.004[/td][td]0.066[/td][td]D[/td][/tr][/table]

[batdad]

LOL at Havlat. Appears that the Sedins are a bit underrated for points. Since you know they have both been at or near the top the last few seasons. Not surprising though....they get underrated everywhere including Vancouver where some believe they are still not ideal first line guys.

[batdad]

But the combination of the two ratings from the two dbs could probably be good.

[Sushamiboy]

I think batdad is right. A mix would be good. As for the Sedins they do seem somewhat underrated. One thing I must mention though is that I'm not surprised to see the Rangers doing better. To be fair on paper they are a good team. A line of Nash-Richards-Gaborik is pretty sweet if it clicks as it did in your first season. Add Lundqvist an up and coming defence and we're talking a solid team, on paper anyways. Makes a lot more sense than the Laffs making the playoffs.

[archibalduk]

Okay, I have taken Daelh's ratings for the teams marked in my table above with a "D" or a "-". I haven't however imported the attributes for the Sedins and Havlat. I'm running a sim at the moment. I should be able to get three single sims done by either today or tomorrow - I'll post the tables up on here again.

I expect that some of the NHL teams will now perform very differently to how they did under the Manimal and Daelh DBs seeing as we are using a mixture of both. If needs be, I can always take an average from the two DBs for some of the rosters if we find teams grossly over or under performing.

[archibalduk]

Hmmm I have done two sims, and it is very clear that my first attempt at mixing hasn't really worked. The numbers I've quoted below are from sim #2, but they're very similar to the numbers from #1 as well.

The Rangers (Manimal attributes) and the Kings (Daelh attributes) have become far too strong, with 0.713 and 0.707 respectively. The Sharks were pretty turbo-charged with 0.683 - they had the top three points scorers (Pavelski 131, Marleau 124 and Thornton 120). Ovechkin was fourth in points with 115. The Bruins finished second to last in the East with 0.451. The Canadiens came fourth with 0.610.

There are two solutions that come to mind - either:

1. Take the average from each DB to calculate average attributes for each team; OR
2. Use Daelh's attributes for all teams except for Detroit, Toronto and Philadelphia (because they performed much more realistically using the original Manimal ratings).

I think I'm going to roll with option #2 to start with. Then if there are any teams that are grossly over/under-performing, I can tweak any over/under-performing players on those rosters to try and get things a little more realistic...

[batdad]

Yay. Super Marleau brother is back!!! Now for Niitttyyymaaaaakkkkkkkkiiiiiiii

[bruins72]

Yay. Super Marleau brother is back!!! Now for Niitttyyymaaaaakkkkkkkkiiiiiiii

I think you're missing 2 or 3 M's in there too.

[batdad]

Most likely .... I have never quite got that spelling right. Closer though I think.

[archibalduk]

After some experimentation, it seems the best compromise it to import Daelh's ratings for all rosters other than Detroit and Toronto (and Havlat and the Sedins). However, as there was with the original attributes, I think there is still some work to be done in order to get things more realistic. Here are some tables comparing the pcts between the database and the real life last season.

I'm going to spend some time over the next few days trying to even things out a little. I think the teams that need the most urgent attention are:

Over-performing Teams
Carolina
Winnipeg

Under-performing Teams
Boston
Colorado
Dallas
New Jersey
Philadelphia
St Louis

There are other teams that are arguably under/over-performing (the Rags, Kings and maybe the Sharks are arguably too strong and perhaps the Laffs and Isles are a bit too weak). I'll get started on the list above, run a few more sims and then see where we are. I expect strengthening the under-performing teams will chip away at LA/NYR/SJ's dominance (but equally may make NYI/TOR relatively weaker).

Eastern Conference
[table][tr][th]Team[/th][th]DB[/th][th]IRL 2011/12[/th][th]Difference[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]NYR[/td][td]0.692[/td][td]0.665[/td][td]0.027[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CAR[/td][td]0.671[/td][td]0.500[/td][td]0.171[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BUF[/td][td]0.586[/td][td]0.543[/td][td]0.043[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PIT[/td][td]0.586[/td][td]0.659[/td][td]-0.074[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]WIN[/td][td]0.567[/td][td]0.512[/td][td]0.055[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NJD[/td][td]0.555[/td][td]0.622[/td][td]-0.067[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]WAS[/td][td]0.555[/td][td]0.561[/td][td]-0.007[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BOS[/td][td]0.546[/td][td]0.622[/td][td]-0.077[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PHI[/td][td]0.528[/td][td]0.628[/td][td]-0.101[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]OTT[/td][td]0.521[/td][td]0.561[/td][td]-0.040[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]FLA[/td][td]0.515[/td][td]0.573[/td][td]-0.058[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]TBL[/td][td]0.512[/td][td]0.512[/td][td]0.000[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MTL[/td][td]0.473[/td][td]0.476[/td][td]-0.003[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]TOR[/td][td]0.448[/td][td]0.488[/td][td]-0.040[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NYI[/td][td]0.427[/td][td]0.482[/td][td]-0.055[/td][/tr][/table]

Western Conference
[table][tr][th]Team[/th][th]DB[/th][th]IRL 2011/12[/th][th]Difference[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]LAK[/td][td]0.689[/td][td]0.579[/td][td]0.110[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]SJS[/td][td]0.650[/td][td]0.585[/td][td]0.065[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]VAN[/td][td]0.647[/td][td]0.677[/td][td]-0.031[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]DET[/td][td]0.637[/td][td]0.622[/td][td]0.015[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CHI[/td][td]0.582[/td][td]0.616[/td][td]-0.034[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ANA[/td][td]0.570[/td][td]0.488[/td][td]0.082[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PHX[/td][td]0.558[/td][td]0.591[/td][td]-0.033[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]STL[/td][td]0.558[/td][td]0.665[/td][td]-0.107[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CGY[/td][td]0.549[/td][td]0.549[/td][td]0.000[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MIN[/td][td]0.494[/td][td]0.494[/td][td]0.000[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]EDM[/td][td]0.488[/td][td]0.451[/td][td]0.037[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NSH[/td][td]0.442[/td][td]0.634[/td][td]-0.192[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]COL[/td][td]0.415[/td][td]0.537[/td][td]-0.122[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CLB[/td][td]0.394[/td][td]0.396[/td][td]-0.003[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]DAL[/td][td]0.390[/td][td]0.543[/td][td]-0.153[/td][/tr][/table]

[archibalduk]

Daelh - thanks for all of your help and sharing your NHL and Swedish attribute updates.

I have imported your NHL attributes to Manimal v5.0 (but not the CA/PAs as they're a bit different to how we have setup the CAs in the Manimal DB). I have made some additional tweaks for v5.0 and plan to re-rate the NHL CAs for the next roster update.

I have imported your Swedish attributes and CAs/PAs to Manimal v5.0 (with some additional tweaking by Manimal.

[Daelh]

No problems, im glad to be a of it!

[Daelh]

But Systemfel should get credit for the Swedish Elitserien, because we worked on it togheter.

[MKoivuFan]

http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... =45&t=9956

I understand the whole PA thing by HF and such but how am i supposed to know what to put the CA at if the player is 13-16 yrs

[nino33]

http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... =45&t=9956

I understand the whole PA thing by HF and such but how am i supposed to know what to put the CA at if the player is 13-16 yrs

In the most recent version (5.3d) of the TBL Rosters the youngest players are 15
- 51 16 year olds, averaging 14.4 CA
- 7 15 year olds, averaging 10 CA

In the UUDB (5.5) there are a lot more such players
- 397 15 year olds averaging 22.5 CA
- 197 14 year olds averaging 17.7 CA
- 41 13 year olds averaging 11.6

[MKoivuFan]

thanks nino once again... ill just do 15 yr olds at 20, 14 yr olds at 15 and 13 yr olds at 10 CA