Calculating CA

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JeffR
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Post by JeffR »

selne wrote:1. You are very unprecise, JeffR. What's the researcher's guide?
The guide explaining the details of the database, distributed to the head researchers by SI. I think either Graeme Kelly or Phil Rolfe did the first version of it, borrowing heavily from an old CM researchers' guide for the format and some of the text; I revised it a couple of times after that in subsequent years, clarifying and correcting some things and also pointing out db-related coding changes that the HR's needed to be aware of.
selne wrote:2. It's been a lot of work to make that guide, i said in the beginning that there were helpers involved (which is simply taking over a few explanations of attributes from the tbn site). But still most of the guide is original content with just very few quotes. Bruins72 asked me if i could do some sort of guide, and he helped me a lot with suggestions to improve its content and the laguage errors.
And you've done quite a good job putting it all together; I suspect the problems I see stem from people with a copy of the guide posting partial or superseded information from it when they were trying to explain ratings to those who hadn't worked on the original research. The "Estimated attribute values by CA" table, for example, was something I included as a quick reference for the researchers to illustrate a rule-of-thumb I mentioned at the end of a two-page discussion of the CA changes. Unfortunately, whoever first copied it out of the guide and posted it just gave the table and not the real meat of the text that explained why the numbers now worked that way, and how it was different from the code in previous editions. That's what I was trying to explain above.
selne wrote:Why don't you name exactly what's so off the mark. Then we talk about it. We can improve the guide anytime, if you have sugggestions, please share them with us. If you know the code, then i have to tell you, you better take a closer look at it. Because the programmers made the influence of weight too big, though not on porpuse. But they could have corrected it while testing.
Sure - if it had been noticed. A great many things were caught and fixed in testing, but that wasn't one of them. I'm embarrassed it slipped by me in particular because that's exactly the sort of thing I looked for in my testing, but I never caught it.
selne wrote:The quote on CA avarages from Alessandro was put into the guide because it's very easy to understand for newbies about how the game calculates the attys. It's just for the first impression.
It's quite wrong for EHM07, though, and, as I said, will create problems in the database if it's done on a large scale. I don't think anyone wants to see that happen to the work Lidas or anyone else is doing, and that's why I wanted to point it out when I saw people taking the direct CA-to-attribute approximations seriously earlier in this thread.

When I was doing the last revision of the research guide, I spent quite a while talking back-and-forth with Riz about what he'd changed with CA to make sure I understood it properly and could explain it to the other HR's, in the hope that everybody would get the message. That was an unusual amount of time for him to spend on db-related stuff, but it was that important. Unfortunately, while some of the guys paid attention to the big red "read me, it's important" text in their new guide - Matt Bosela's one I remember getting it exactly right - not all did, and there wasn't time to fix all of the problems. But no reason to keep repeating their mistakes when it can be clarified now, right? Much easier to avoid people creating bad data in the first place than it is to find and fix the problems later - believe me, I know, after spending hundreds of hours trying to undo damage done to some of the league db's, with only mixed success.

Re: sharing the guides, as much as I'd like to, their content, even the stuff written by me, ultimately belongs to SI and just isn't mine to share. I'll happily clarify db-related stuff where I can, but posting old EHM work product wholesale would be more than a little out-of-bounds.
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Post by bruins72 »

I wonder if we could get SI's permission for you to post that guide? Also, if you'd like to make suggestions for changes to the guide selne put together, we always modify it. I'm sure we all just want to see these things understood properly so we can give Lidas good research for his next version of the rosters.
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Post by archibalduk »

Thanks Jeff for taking the time to explain some of the inaccuracies of the guide and a little of the background of how CA has developed in EHM 2007. It's very interesting indeed and something everyone involved in updating the EHM rosters should really bear in mind.

That's a fair point about the EHM researcher's guide. I think I'll contact Riz and see if it is possible to get hold of at least some extracts from the guide. We all have the same aim here (to keep EHM updated and very much alive) and so the guide (or at least extracts thereof) would be invaluable in our work.


Jeff, perhaps you could point me in the right direction with a project I intend to commence work on this summer. I'm going to be looking at NHL players' real life performances and comparing these to their performances in EHM. I have ten saved games which have each had one season simulated (five saved for East Conf and five for West Conf). I'll be taking the average stats from the saved games and comparing these to their real life stats. I want to see if I can then tweak player attributes to make them achieve in EHM similar stats to their real life performances.

Clearly this won't make the NHL in EHM ultra-realistic and also there is a lot more to rating a player's performance than just a few end of season stats. However perhaps it is possible to improve the NHL players' attributes in EHM even to just a small extent.

So my question is: Which attributes are the most key/important to tweak for each player position? I know that all of the attributes work together in a complex way, but it's not realistic for me to look at every single attribute for every single NHL player due to time constraints. Thus I want to make it more simplistic and just look at tweaking the most important attributes. I could certainly take a good guess at this and I was going to ask the TBL community for their opinions; but seeing as you are here at the moment I thought your opinion would be very well informed indeed.
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Post by JeffR »

archibalduk wrote:Jeff, perhaps you could point me in the right direction with a project I intend to commence work on this summer. I'm going to be looking at NHL players' real life performances and comparing these to their performances in EHM. I have ten saved games which have each had one season simulated (five saved for East Conf and five for West Conf). I'll be taking the average stats from the saved games and comparing these to their real life stats. I want to see if I can then tweak player attributes to make them achieve in EHM similar stats to their real life performances.

Clearly this won't make the NHL in EHM ultra-realistic and also there is a lot more to rating a player's performance than just a few end of season stats. However perhaps it is possible to improve the NHL players' attributes in EHM even to just a small extent.

So my question is: Which attributes are the most key/important to tweak for each player position? I know that all of the attributes work together in a complex way, but it's not realistic for me to look at every single attribute for every single NHL player due to time constraints. Thus I want to make it more simplistic and just look at tweaking the most important attributes. I could certainly take a good guess at this and I was going to ask the TBL community for their opinions; but seeing as you are here at the moment I thought your opinion would be very well informed indeed.
What I'd suggest doing is working on a case-by-case basis for the players based on what looks "wrong" with their stats - the best starting point is probably getting their shots-per-minute and minutes played into a reasonably accurate range (pass tendency being the best thing to use for the former, and a combination of stamina, natural fitness, CA, and off/def roles for the latter.) Once you've got that, you can see who's doing too little or too much of what, whether it's scoring, hitting, taking penalties, or whatever. From there just adjust the logical attribute(s) that drive the number in question. Then run another season, check the results, and adjust again through as many iterations as you want. Even if you just do it for the NHL regulars and one or two passes through them, you should get significant improvements in the realism of the stats - in the short term, at least.

But the one big impediment I see to getting good long-term results is the attribute inflation that's happened from version to version and then in user-modified db's. After running the game for a while, there winds up being far too many players at the higher reaches of CA and it's just not a realistic environment to model anything in. The only solution I can see to that is a massive re-rate that pushes most CA's and PA's lower, but that's obviously a huge project. The one quick-and-dirty thing I'd suggest doing is eliminating retired players with high PA's; those accumulated in the original db from year to year as guys retired, and I added even more as a stopgap to shore up holes in the db where we didn't have enough young players rated for particular areas and needed regens to come in early. But they just wind up contributing to the overall attribute inflation and don't need to be there now; if the early draft pools in a db are weak those can be strengthened directly since you have access to the whole db.

(Oh, and I just thought of something else - the game tends to call far too many penalties; you can cut into this a bit by making the referees in a given league a lot more lenient. It's not a perfect fix, but it can take a decent bite out of the problem.)
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Post by Lidas »

JeffR wrote:But the one big impediment I see to getting good long-term results is the attribute inflation that's happened from version to version and then in user-modified db's. After running the game for a while, there winds up being far too many players at the higher reaches of CA and it's just not a realistic environment to model anything in. The only solution I can see to that is a massive re-rate that pushes most CA's and PA's lower, but that's obviously a huge project. The one quick-and-dirty thing I'd suggest doing is eliminating retired players with high PA's; those accumulated in the original db from year to year as guys retired.
Interesting that you mentioned this, as this is what I'm currently working on. I've heard many users complain that the 2007 and 2008 drafts are too weak... but I dont agree with this. I believe this opinion is because the 2009 and 2010 drafts are too strong, and comparing with these who makes the first two drafts look really weak. Due to this, I'm looking to significantly downgrade the 2009 and 2010 drafts for next release.

I still want to have the players retire by using the extra_config (because it generates some "famous" staff), so I'll downgrade/randomize PA of the players retiring. Unfortunately this will destroy some of the fun of identifying regens, but we'll just have to live with that :-D
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Post by bruins72 »

Honestly, Lidas... I think you're doing the right thing by downgrading some of the retiring players. As much fun as some people have with identifying regens, I think more people will have more fun with the balance that this will bring to the game. I really like those first couple drafts. I feel proud when I can find some gems. Just like in real life, you're going to have some duds, a small handful of players that can immediately make the jump to the NHL, and a whole lot of players that are going to take several years to develop before they make it to the NHL.
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Post by batdad »

Absolutely no question Lidas is right. The 3rd and 4th drafts are way too strong. Since when do you get all 7 picks guaranteed to be on your roster in the top 3 dmen, top 6 forward and starting goalies each and every time in a draft.

Maybe...just maybe you get at the most 5 in a normal course to make your team, and maybe 1 or 2 of those play top positions. This is something I have thought about alot.

Atta boy Lidas, and Jeff thanks so much for the help.
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Post by archibalduk »

Thanks Jeff. That's extremely useful. I'll have a play around once I've finalised the new site design. :thup:

With regards to globally increasing/decreasing CA and PA, I wonder if Neil (aka mne2) would be able to implement such a feature in his pre-game editor. He managed to implement a feature that globally altered player ages so perhaps it could be done for CA/PA with relative ease. Perhaps an ability to alter player CA by a user defined percentage, for example?
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Post by JeffR »

Is Neil even still working on the editor? I assumed not, with the rights bug being unfixed for this long. At any rate, it probably wouldn't work that well to globally reduce CA/PA, because you'd still have to adjust attributes to fit the new PA's, and in additon to that the excesses aren't uniform - some researchers stuck to the guidelines and others didn't. If you knock them all down, it'll reduce some that are already low enough. Although that still might be preferable to doing the NHL, then having to do the AHL and European elite leagues because they're now too high relative to the NHL, then the next tier because they're too high relative to the elites, etc, etc. until you get all the way to the bottom.

One other thing (besides eliminating retirees) that can be done to fix the rating inflation is pruning back PA's for high-level players. With the benefit of hindsight, it's pretty clear to see that the percentage of NHLer's in the stock database who have room to grow their CA is way too high - many younger guys have PA 10+ points higher than CA, when in actuality they didn't improve after 06-07. And it's not unreasonable to cheat a bit and ignore the guideline that, for post-prime players, PA should be set according to their peak. The Czechs shouldn't be producing a once-in-a-lifetime goalie every 20 years. Set his PA at or just above his CA and make people look for a goalie properly, instead of playing hunt-the-Hasek-regen. ;)
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Post by bruins72 »

So what would think the cut-off age would be for players that really aren't going to improve anymore? Just as an example, I'll throw out 26 or 27 (that might be a little low, I'm not sure). So if we took all of the players aged 27 and older, found the season with their best stats and plugged those numbers into the "ShaddSheet", we could use that as their PA? That would be their peak season? Or maybe their 2 or 3 best seasons averaged would be more realistic?

I definitely like your idea about the Hasek regen. Either eliminate him or scale him back as you suggested.

I don't know if mne2 is still working on the editor but he was here about a year or so ago and did some updates to the editor to help make Lidas' life a little easier on the roster updates.
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Post by batdad »

Heh "Hunt-the-Hasek"... B72 you gotta change the name of that thread. Hunting regens always bothers me....I never care who they are, just care if they can play. I took Hasek once and did not even know it was him til 3 seasons later.

And yeah, changing some PA's on older guys would be cool.
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Post by Lidas »

I'll take a look at lowering older player's PAs. Not sure I can get it all done before next release though.
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Post by JeffR »

bruins72 wrote:So what would think the cut-off age would be for players that really aren't going to improve anymore? Just as an example, I'll throw out 26 or 27 (that might be a little low, I'm not sure). So if we took all of the players aged 27 and older, found the season with their best stats and plugged those numbers into the "ShaddSheet", we could use that as their PA? That would be their peak season? Or maybe their 2 or 3 best seasons averaged would be more realistic?.
Well, that's how it was supposed to be done for NHL-level players whose best seasons were behind them, and that rule was generally followed pretty closely in the stock db. The problem that creates, though, is in situations like Jonathan Cheechoo. He had his best years at 25-26, but on average the game will usually start degrading him around 30. So if you're rating him while he's 28, where his CA is only average, if you used the normal PA procedure, he'd have a high PA and the game would push him back up towards stardom for at least a couple of years, and he'd wind up having a much better late career than he should (and a player could do something crazy like trade him for Dany Heatley. ;) )

So in that case I'd argue that it's just best to set his PA to his current CA, since he's going downhill in RL and should do the same in-game. That's an extreme example, but there are a lot of guys with 5, 10, 15 points of room to grow their CA that shouldn't, and those add up. If those PA's get trimmed off for everybody past their later 20's who doesn't have a compelling reason to expect some late-career improvement, that's one step to getting the rating inflation under control.
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Post by tksolway »

Lidas wrote:
JeffR wrote:But the one big impediment I see to getting good long-term results is the attribute inflation that's happened from version to version and then in user-modified db's. After running the game for a while, there winds up being far too many players at the higher reaches of CA and it's just not a realistic environment to model anything in. The only solution I can see to that is a massive re-rate that pushes most CA's and PA's lower, but that's obviously a huge project. The one quick-and-dirty thing I'd suggest doing is eliminating retired players with high PA's; those accumulated in the original db from year to year as guys retired.
Interesting that you mentioned this, as this is what I'm currently working on. I've heard many users complain that the 2007 and 2008 drafts are too weak... but I dont agree with this. I believe this opinion is because the 2009 and 2010 drafts are too strong, and comparing with these who makes the first two drafts look really weak. Due to this, I'm looking to significantly downgrade the 2009 and 2010 drafts for next release.

I still want to have the players retire by using the extra_config (because it generates some "famous" staff), so I'll downgrade/randomize PA of the players retiring. Unfortunately this will destroy some of the fun of identifying regens, but we'll just have to live with that :-D
The problem with this idea is that it limits the future talent pool in the DB. I would rather see a phased retirement of the stars (have the injured or store them all on an Icelandic team or something). If you can work it so the retirements are phased over 3-4 years then suddenly it isn't a problem any more. Plus, while I admit that the 09 and 10 drafts are very top heavy, the 07 and 08 drafts are very very weak. I've played three games with your 2.2 DB at 7+ seasons, in each instance fewer than 10 players from each draft had played more than 250 games in the NHL, and the top prospects from each draft were 2nd liners at best.
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Post by Reave »

Another problem, this time with calculating CA (I use Lidas research sheet 1.1).

The problem is that it wont calculate anything. I fill in name, team, stats, after that nothing happens. I have pressed Enter/Tab/Clicked random row.

Have I forgotten something from the research time? :-)

edit* Found another thread..
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Re: Calculating CA

Post by batdad »

I am bumping this thread for those who may be interested in what Jeff R has to say. This is for the massive rerate of NHL players etc that archi has said he may want to take on and do.

Please pay close attention to what Jeff R has to say about a few thing

1. Penalties...minor issue (and not sure the lenience thing was ever figured out)
2. CA-PA relationship and the attribute issue around them

Please listen to what Jeff R has to say here about how the CA-PA and attributes should be...at least as much as you can. The Cheechoo example and Hasek examples are awesome.

I officially have the threadocaucal necrotizing bimpyitous disease. :-D
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Re: Calculating CA

Post by Beukeboom »

I take it as positive that theres a tendency to put less talent into DBs. Talent pool always was way too deep for my likings.
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Re: Calculating CA

Post by archibalduk »

batdad wrote:I am bumping this thread for those who may be interested in what Jeff R has to say. This is for the massive rerate of NHL players etc that archi has said he may want to take on and do.

Please pay close attention to what Jeff R has to say about a few thing

1. Penalties...minor issue (and not sure the lenience thing was ever figured out)
2. CA-PA relationship and the attribute issue around them

Please listen to what Jeff R has to say here about how the CA-PA and attributes should be...at least as much as you can. The Cheechoo example and Hasek examples are awesome.

I officially have the threadocaucal necrotizing bimpyitous disease. :-D
The CA-PA thing is pretty much how I'd intended to do things. CA certainly needs to be reduced - I want to bring the average down so it falls in line with what SI originally intended. For PA, I think a good starting point is to cap all players aged 27+.

The difficulty is that the NHL is a big league. We're talking around 1,000 players to re-rate. As I'm only one person (and previous attempts to garner interest in other users to help have largely failed) I intend on taking a broad brush approach. I'll be taking players by position and placing them in bands of skill (e.g. Poor, Poor-to-Below Average, Below Average, Low Average, Average, etc etc) and using this as a starting point for CAs. I'll update just some core attributes and also Def/Off Role. Once I'm done, I can upload it for people to test and comment on. At the very least, I hope it to be a decent improvement over what we have at the moment.
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Re: Calculating CA

Post by NingDynasty »

If we are talking about a rerate and or update of something like the UUDB I'd be more inclined to help (or circa 2000 db as I've always dreamed of...) That is if you haven't given up to go to FHM editing full time :-D
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Re: Calculating CA

Post by archibalduk »

NingDynasty wrote:If we are talking about a rerate and or update of something like the UUDB I'd be more inclined to help (or circa 2000 db as I've always dreamed of...) That is if you haven't given up to go to FHM editing full time :-D
The NHL will be a total re-rate. Well, at least in relation to a range of attributes. I've already made some progress on it. I want to get a test version ready before the summer. I'm certainly not giving up on EHM quite yet! :-D

If you're interested in helping with researching a league then please do drop Manimal a message. :thup:
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