Eventual NHL Expansion

[Ozzman]

Eastern Conference now has 16 team while Western only got 14. Do you think Mr Gary B and his army of suits are plotting for two new Western teams? If so, witch cities are suitable for an NHL-franchise?

If I'm not mistaken Seattle was pretty hot for a while when it seemed that Coyotes would move. Personally I think Seattle is going to be one of them. And then I have no idea, since I'm from Europe and don't know much about, american economy and where hockey might be popular. Another canadian team based in the Toronto area perhaps?

[CeeBee]

When the new arena is built I'd say Seattle could be at the top of the list. I'd guess Kansas City as the other as they would nicely slot into the Central Division.

[CJ]

I don't remember when or where I read about it but Las Vegas & Houston were potential cities with Kansas City and Seattle.

[philou21]

Las Vegas is probably the biggest joke I've ever heard. If they're really thinking about going there the NHL is doomed for good. Seattle could be ok I think but Kansas City mehhhh.

[CeeBee]

Then there is Quebec City but that would entail moving a team to the west... more likely that team comes from one of Florida, Tampa, Carolina or Columbus methinks.

[Primis]

Vegas is not a serious consideration. The league would LIKE to get into there, but there's just not enough of a market for an NHL team. Vegas tops out as an AHL market probably.

Houston is a serious consideration now that the Aeros are gone. IIRC Rockets ownership had a contract with the Aeros that really stalled an NHL talk. With the Aeros now gone though and that contract basically wiped out, it's possible a team could move on into there. It's actually a good market.

I'd be shocked if Kansas City is still really in the mix at the moment.

Until the balance is restored in alignment, no Eastern markets should be considered in play for expansion. I also don't think the league is QUITE so eager to get in bed with Quebec until they see a bit more longterm what happens in Winnipeg.

[jesterx7769]

I think everyone can agree that the NHL WILL expand very soon to fill those two voids. Also with the rule changes from the old lockout young players have been able to produce so much better growing the talent pool and of course the continuing influx of Europe/Russian talent.

Seattle appears to be a given. They have one of the longest hockey histories without being in the NHL due to their stupid owner. I recently moved to Seattle this summer from Florida (via Chicago via Detroit) and am shocked at how big a sporting town and hockey town it is. The guy who wants to build a new arena is going to do so without an NBA/NHL team then use that to draw them in, however they do have an old arena that can be used for one season.

The second team becomes problematic as it would need to be in the West. Quebec City, London, Toronto, which are all hot cities for another team would all be in the east. I worked in the OHL for awhile and a team in London would be good since the Knights sell out their 10K every night. I also think a rivalry in Toronto would be interesting since its such a big city.

As an American I would love for the second team to be in Canada. I don't think Houston/KC would be able to sustain it based on other "Southern" Hockey teams and how they are doing (Phoenix, Atlanta, Miami). I don't think the city is big enough to support a team but I will throw out Portland to rival the new Seattle time. Portland is HUGE into MLS since their only other team is the NBA. They are close enough to Canada that some Canadian fans will prob come down for games to help boost ticket sales, but like I said idk if it is big enough.

Boise is actually growing at a high rate and not having any other pro teams may help them. However I have only been once so I don't really know if they could support it on their own.

I really think it is this "second team" that is holding things up. Of course as someone mentioned they could move an Eastern team to the West (which would make perfect sense as you are realigning for the long term anyways)

[Animal31]

if the NHL expands, so does the AHL

the AHL should expand to Seattle and Utah, while the NHL should expand to Seattle and Oregon

[batdad]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO


But yeah..they will. Seattle, Vegas, Quebec, and some stupid non hockey totally hick market like oh I dunno....Toronto.

[philou21]

Best post you wrote in a while!

[Primis]

if the NHL expands, so does the AHL

the AHL should expand to Seattle and Utah, while the NHL should expand to Seattle and Oregon

Utah struggles to maintain a fanbase in the ECHL and IIRC has financial problems as it is. While AHL NHL-affiliated players come "free", the affiliation costs are much higher and the travel schedule would not be as kind as the ECHL's is. SLC just never really solidifies itself as a market in any league they've been in.

If the AHL expands, Ontario, Cal. is probably the first ECHL candidate. Orlando, FL also in the East, possibly Gwinnett, GA as well. Fort Wayne draws well but the fanbase has a serious aversion to affiliated hockey as it is. Toledo's a great ECHL town and has an outside shot I guess to be an AHL town but they'd have to affiliate with someone other than the Red Wings, so I don't know how that'd fly with fans, but they're probably not at the top of a list too. Stockton, Cal might be on that list too. I'm not convinced Bakersfield, Cal would be. Nor am I convinced the AHL would fly in Las Vegas any better than the ECHL currently does.

The other thing to remember is that the AHL is facing its own inevitable shake-up of markets at some point. All those older east coast markets that are struggling (Springfield, Worcester, etc), at some point some of them are probably going to go away entirely or drop down to perhaps the ECHL or FHL and some of those west-coast larger AHL markets may already be used up.

I'm not so sure the sport is in a position that if the NHL expands to 32 that the AHL can follow suit, etc. The AHL really struggles to even stay at 30 as it is.

[coombs14]

I'm not so sure the sport is in a position that if the NHL expands to 32 that the AHL can follow suit, etc. The AHL really struggles to even stay at 30 as it is.

Exactly. Even in Canada the AHL can struggle to draw crowds. While the Bulldogs do alright the Abbotsford Heat only draw about 3500 per game and this year are down at 2600 so far. Most good Canadian markets already have dominant CHL teams in them and a lot of American cities in the east are struggling. Plus hockey is probably going to be of less priority for people's spending money than baseball or college sports.

[Primis]

I'm not so sure the sport is in a position that if the NHL expands to 32 that the AHL can follow suit, etc. The AHL really struggles to even stay at 30 as it is.

Exactly. Even in Canada the AHL can struggle to draw crowds. While the Bulldogs do alright the Abbotsford Heat only draw about 3500 per game and this year are down at 2600 so far. Most good Canadian markets already have dominant CHL teams in them and a lot of American cities in the east are struggling. Plus hockey is probably going to be of less priority for people's spending money than baseball or college sports.

Yeah Canada can't get past the whole Major Junior thing, which is really too bad. AHL hockey is undoubtedly better than major junior (sorry, but it's the truth. You're talking about mature, adult players, some of them from overseas even, vs kids where 20 is considered "overage". Many of those CHL players then go on to sign in the ECHL or Central league and not the AHL even). I can see why they'd choose the WHL over ECHL in Victoria of course, but... "AAA" hockey struggles most of the time in Canadian markets. Winnipeg did ok with the Manitoba Moose I guess after the Jets left, but that seems to be an exception. Hamilton hasn't done so hot attendance-wise though from what I've seen. I have no idea how St. John's is doing but, they're also more of an outlier in a number of ways anyways.

I think instead of trying to expand the NHL yet again, the sport would be better-served to sort out their 30 NHL markets and stabilize them all, solidify the AHL level with a good, solid 30 markets, and then work to unify the "AA" level and try to get them at or close to 30 instead.

[batdad]

Yeah Canada can't get past the whole Major Junior thing, which is really too bad. AHL hockey is undoubtedly better than major junior (sorry, but it's the truth. You're talking about mature, adult players, some of them from overseas even, vs kids where 20 is considered "overage"

Mature players yes. Skilled players...not quite so much. In a few situations there are skilled players in the AHL, but the exciting players are in the NHL already for the most part, right from the get go.

Junior hockey is exciting because the mistakes that occur are akin to the old days of the NHL....guys make young mental mistakes.

Also..the star power (the future star power of the NHL....not the AHL) is there in the Canadian Hockey League. Most of those stars that are the future in the NHL ARE NOT in the AHL. Yeah, there are some 2nd line guys and 3rd line guys in the AHL....but the stars....they are CHL and NHL (and Europe), and on occasion USHL or College. They ARE NOT in the AHL. Or if they are...they are very few.

That being said...many major junior teams only draw 4000 people as well. Some draw fewer than 3000 on a regular basis.

It is not that these people incorrectly choose what they want to watch...they choose what they want to watch...future top line NHL stars (CHL) or future 2nd -3rd-4th liners and career AHLers (AHL)...for nearly the same price.

They have the choice, and being informed hockey people....they make it. They want to see the top level players whether it be at 16,17 or 20.

[CeeBee]

Most places don't have a choice for live hockey anyway. How many junior teams are in NHL or AHL cities? And then there's the cost of going to a game as well. I think it's that people just watch whats available and also what they can afford. Hell, even junior B is more fun live than most NHL games on TV unless its the playoffs or a team you really are a fan of.

[Animal31]

Most places don't have a choice for live hockey anyway. How many junior teams are in NHL or AHL cities? And then there's the cost of going to a game as well. I think it's that people just watch whats available and also what they can afford. Hell, even junior B is more fun live than most NHL games on TV unless its the playoffs or a team you really are a fan of.

Calgary and Edmonton have 2 teams in the same arena

Vancouver, Toronto, montreal, and ottawa all have CHL teams in the same city
Toronto has an AHL team too


bascially all of canada minus winnipeg

[Animal31]

I'm not so sure the sport is in a position that if the NHL expands to 32 that the AHL can follow suit, etc. The AHL really struggles to even stay at 30 as it is.

Exactly. Even in Canada the AHL can struggle to draw crowds. While the Bulldogs do alright the Abbotsford Heat only draw about 3500 per game and this year are down at 2600 so far. Most good Canadian markets already have dominant CHL teams in them and a lot of American cities in the east are struggling. Plus hockey is probably going to be of less priority for people's spending money than baseball or college sports.

Its the affiliations

Everyone in hamilton wants to watch the leafs, or senators, they dont want to watch the filthy habs prospects
same in Abby, they dont want to watch the Flames

St Johns does great, Toronto does average

and AHL attendance as a whole is lower this season cause of the not lockout

[CeeBee]

Most places don't have a choice for live hockey anyway. How many junior teams are in NHL or AHL cities? And then there's the cost of going to a game as well. I think it's that people just watch whats available and also what they can afford. Hell, even junior B is more fun live than most NHL games on TV unless its the playoffs or a team you really are a fan of.

Calgary and Edmonton have 2 teams in the same arena

Vancouver, Toronto, montreal, and ottawa all have CHL teams in the same city
Toronto has an AHL team too


bascially all of canada minus winnipeg

I was looking at it from a junior hockey perspective. There are over 70 major junior teams, most are not in NHL or AHL cities. It might work in Canada but doubling up in the USA probably wouldnt work in too many places

[XenHL]

Two in the west, okay... move Florida to Seattle, now you need one east and one west. Put a new team into Quebec City because apart from Seattle that's the only major hockey market left without a team, and for that one Western team, maybe Milwaukee might work, or just turn the Fort Wayne Komets into an NHL team.

[batdad]

There is a rumour out there somewhere right now....that Seattle may be getting expansion team within 2-3 years

Quite honestly, the NHL has committed itself to expansion by 2 teams with the new conference set up.

There will be 2 expansion teams into what the NHL deems good markets before any teams are allowed to move. No way no how is Seattle going to get a re-located team. They will get an expansion franchise.

Same goes for Quebec City. Relocation will be perhaps the 2nd team in Southern Ontario, perhaps Kansas City, perhaps Las Vegas, or something insane like oh say Oklahoma City lol, or Indianapolis (laugh at least as loud), or Podunk Iowa.

[bruins72]

The NHL has to stop thinking of itself like other sports. Hockey is a niche sport in the U.S. and they're not going to grow the league by putting teams in places that don't have much interest. Put minor league teams in those non-traditional markets and let them work on selling the sport. If they're going to expand anymore into the U.S. markets, it's got to be in places with popular college and minor hockey.

[batdad]

I was kind of just randomly listing off possible spots for relocation. They are only going to expand into a couple of places..but they will expand BEFORE they relocate.

Places for expansion.

1. Seattle.
2. Quebec City
3. Kansas City
4. Las Vegas
5. Houston
6. Southern Ontario

2 of those 6 will be used for expansion prior to allowing anyone to relocate. In all likelihood the other 4 spots will be relocated to eventually.

[bruins72]

Wisconsin wouldn't be a bad spot for a team. Their college hockey team has a pretty big following. I don't think Vegas or Houston would really work too well though.

[batdad]

Did not say they would work/ Just saying that is where looking. Wisconsin is a possibility but they are really college and football based. Population not big. I dunno about it either.

Vegas is either a BIG WIN, or BIG Loss for the NHL. No in between just getting by doing okay.

Houston I agree will be a tough sell, but...it is Texas and only Dallas there, one never knows...still a ways away for relocation me thinks anyway.

[XenHL]

Every pro sports team they have tried in Vegas has failed, from the Thunder in the IHL to the CFL team to whatever else. The population is far too transient for it to work. Vegas is a stupider idea than Mexico City. Vegas will fail.

High school and college hockey are pretty solid in Wisconsin from what I understand, so it should be viable there.

Kansas City - why should it work now if the Scouts failed?

Houston - the Aeros did well in the WHA, and had the merger taken place a year or two earlier I think the Aeros would be a well established, successful NHL club by now. The Cincinnati Stingers and Indianapolis Racers could have been too, their attendances were improving, interest in hockey was growing. Cincinnati is probably out of the question now because of Columbus... but Indianapolis, why not? It has a better chance of success than Vegas.

Seattle and QcC will be big successes, expansion or otherwise. Both are proven hockey markets, both have instant rivalries - Seattle and Vancouver already are big rivals in soccer, and it would take about ten seconds after the announcement of a team going to Quebec for the Habs-Nords rivalry to re-emerge in force. (Which was the best rivalry ever! My teenage rebellion against my dad was to switch to liking the Nords. He wouldn't talk to me for some days.)

And of course wherever you put a team in southern Ontario, it will succeed.

But I don't think it'd be a good idea to overlook a smaller market like Fort Wayne. Absorbing the Komets into the NHL? I think it could work... the team has a long history with a fairly fanatic following, so you've already got a built-in market that Vegas (or even KC?) would have trouble matching over many years... it'd have a higher chance of success than the entirely hockey-free markets the NHL has moved into and still seems to want to do.