As promised, here's some detail on how I updated the NHL for the TBL Rosters v6.0. I have added headings to try and break things up a little. This all follows on from my earlier post here:
http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... 30#p163730
Note that due to the time it took to write this and to draw up the tables, I haven't yet had time to proof-read it yet. I'll proof-read it when I have a spare moment (and if I think of anything additional, I'll update this post).
SCOPE AND BASIS OF THE UPDATE
I started the research back in around April or May 2013. Most of the work was done prior to July 2013 and I finished it off after the summer, in between moving house and a couple of FHM 2013 deadlines I had.
I used the following as a basis for the update:
- The existing TBL Rosters v5.3d ratings
- 2011/12 and 2012/13 regular season stats
- Depth charts from various online sources
The update covered 962 NHL players and free agents who played in the NHL in 2012/13 or who didn't play that season but played in 2011/12. This covered virtually all players on an NHL roster in the v5.3d DB, other than those who had not played an NHL game. This consisted of:
- 84 Goalies
- 301 Defencemen
- 343 Wingers
- 234 Centres
In terms of testing the update, we were pretty much testing this right up to the release date. Most of my testing concentrated on getting the scoring, PIM and fighting levels more realistic. This involving using the information from bobmcgoo's Realism Patch thread and then experimenting with various attributes to see how whether some form of realism patch could be implemented into the DB without the extensive changes involved in bobmcgoo's patch. The work on improving the realism of the game took 2 or 3 months to complete.
As I mentioned in my previous post, trying to update 950+ players on my own was pretty tough. When testing my update, I could only review things as more of a general overview kind of way. So it was checking that the correct people were at the top of the stats tables for each team and that teams were performing reasonably well. Unfortunately there are a number of teams who were still not performing very realistically at the time of release (e.g. Colorado, Toronto and Carolina). But we agreed that the v6.0 DB would be released by Christmas regardless of how things were because it had been 8 months since the last DB and everybody was understandably anxious for the first 2013/14 update of the season. The v6.0 should really be regarded as a work in progress; there is still much to be done (and as I've said before, we had fewer researchers for this version and several of us who have helped haven't had as much free time as on previous versions. The NHL update was also tested by another researcher (I don't know who) and their feedback was that it seemed good.
Manimal also went through my updated CAs and changed some of them (Brooks Orpik was also supposed to have been downgraded, but his amended CA was inadvertantly missed from the list imported into the DB).
With regards to NHL rookies, I didn't update any of these. As mentioned above, my update was based on those who had played last season. Manimal updated the CAs for a number of rookies, but didn't have time to work on their attributes for v6.0.
CURRENT ABILITY
One of the key aims of the update was to get the CAs more in line with how they ought to be in EHM. As mentioned in my previous post, the NHL ratings are higher than what EHM had been designed for and NHL players were generally too perfect.
The NHL CAs should be rated like this in EHM 2007:
[table][tr][th]Descriptor[/th][th]CA[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]Top[/td][td]190[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Good[/td][td]160[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Average[/td][td]120[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Poor[/td][td]100[/td][/tr][/table]
Although the CAs should range from 100 - 190, the bulk of the players should cluster around 120 because this is what the CA should be for the average NHL player. Additionally, if you calculate the average CA of all of the players in the NHL, it should be 120. Therefore it follows that there should be fewer players at towards the top end of CAs and more clustered around the Average.
Based on the above, I calculated the CA range of each of the four categories as per the table below. Obviously there could be some minor variations on how you could calculate these ranges. These ranges are just for comparing the CA ranges between DB updates and not for setting the CAs themselves.
[table][tr][th]Descriptor[/th][th]CA Range[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]Top[/td][td]180 - 200[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Good[/td][td]140 - 179[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Average[/td][td]110 - 139[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Poor[/td][td]100 - 109[/td][/tr][/table]
The table below shows how the DB v6.0 compares with the previous TBL DB and the original v3.0.4 DB (i.e. the final DB released by SI). The data sample is based on players contracted to an NHL team and with a CA of at least 100. I have made the assumption that players with a CA less than 100 are not of NHL quality and therefore should not be considered. Such players are typically playing in the juniors or minors (e.g. the AHL/ECHL and the Canadian Major Juniors). My update has concentrated on those who have played in the NHL and are therefore of NHL quality; and should thus have CAs in the 100 - 190 range.
Note that the percentage figures below are rounded to one decimal place. Thus the figures might not quite add up to 100%.
[table][tr][th]Descriptor[/th][th]CA Range[/th][th]Original v3.0.4[/th][th]TBL DB v5.3d[/th][th]TBL DB v6.0[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]Top[/td][td]180 - 200[/td][td]1.6%[/td][td]1.3%[/td][td]2.5%[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Good[/td][td]140 - 179[/td][td]25.5%[/td][td]34.2%[/td][td]27.0%[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Average[/td][td]110 - 139[/td][td]51.5%[/td][td]52.3%[/td][td]64.2%[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Poor[/td][td]100 - 109[/td][td]21.4%[/td][td]12.3%[/td][td]6.3%[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]AVERAGE CA[/td][td]-[/td][td]127[/td][td]132[/td][td]130[/td][/tr][/table]
Contrary to what some people have said, the NHL hasn't really been downgraded at all. In some respects it has in fact been upgraded albeit the average CA is now 1.5% lower than the v5.3d DB - but it is still not as low as the original EHM rosters (127) and is not as low as the ideal average (120).
The reason for leaving things this way is because I had originally planned to release the NHL update as a separate update for "beta" testing and feedback. However, because of various things that took up my time (e.g. moving house and working on the realism patch), I never had the opportunity to release it in advance of the TBL DB update.
The plan was that, on receiving feedback, we could decide which players need dropping down from Top to Good, Good to Average, etc. By dropping down these players, we'd have a spread of talent which more or less reflects the the original 3.0.4 spread whilst also getting much closer to the 120 average. We have already received quite a lot of feedback and hopefully this will help us adjust the CAs so we're more in line with how it ought to be - but we of course need more feedback because we have 30 teams to cover. Perhaps a starting point for finalising the CAs would be to identify those players who are overrated and drop their CAs down.
One final note: It's worth keeping in mind that I used steps of 5 when rating the CAs. So whereas a player may be have been given a 107 or a 117 CA under previous updates, I would have given him a 110 or 120. It just made things a little easier to manage whilst also giving some freedom to tweak things later on following feedback. At the top of the ratings, I capped CAs at 187 rather than 190, but these players could always be increased to 190 if needs be.
POTENTIAL ABILITY
The only work on PAs I did was to cap older players' PAs according to their CAs. In other words, to prevent older players improving any further.
I didn't make any other adjustments to PAs seeing as the CAs still needed more work.
RE-RATING/RE-DISTRIBUTING THE ATTRIBUTES (PART 1)
As mentioned when I announced the release of the v6.0 DB, I made two types of re-rating to the NHL: Re-rating and re-distributing. Here's what each means:
1) Re-Rating
Completely re-rating a particular attribute, based on the existing rating as well as the 2011/12 and 2012/13 stats. For example, the Wristshot attributes were based on the existing Wrist attributes along with goals per ATOI and shot quality (I used either Corsi or Fenwick - I can't remember which).
Other examples include Aggression which was based mostly on PIM per ATOI, Fighting which was based mostly on fight win% and total fights and Dirtiness which was based partly on number/length of suspensions and number of major penalties (amongst other things).
Another example is Faceoffs which was based mostly on faceoff win% and total faceoffs. The range of ratings I used when re-rating this attribute was higher for centres than wingers and higher for wingers than defencemen.
2) Re-Distributing
This is where I maintaing the order of the existing ratings but redistributed the ratings in order to properly reflect how these ratings should be distributed in EHM (and in fact we do something very similar for FHM). This is actually how I did most of the work for the NHL update. I.e. most of the attributes I adjusted we simply re-distributed rather than re-rated.
I don't think I've explained this well and so I will use an example: One attribute I re-distributed was Pace (aka Speed). In order to re-distribute, I ranked all of the players by their existing Pace attribute.
Obviously a lot of players have the same existing Pace rating and so I had to sub-sort these players in order to properly rank the players. For Pace, I used a number of factors to sub-sort equally rated players; such as age, CA and how good their present team is. Each of these factors had a different weight to the sub-sorting (age had the biggest weighting whereas how good their team is had a very minute weighting).
Although the sub-sorting would affect whether the player is ranked higher or lower, it would only in reality have an effect of raising/lowering the final attribute by around about 1 point and so it didn't need to be a precise science IMO.
Having sub-sorted the players so that they were ranked from first to last, I then adjusted players down slightly if they were old. This was done on the assumption that the NHL players in DB haven't been aged much over the years. For example, in the v5.3d DB Marian Gaborik still has the 18 Pace rating he had from the v3.0.4 EHM DB. There's no denying he's still a fast skater, but I'd argue he's not as quick aged 31 as he was in 2006/07 at age 25. Thus for a number of physical attributes, I reduced older players down the ranks to reflect ageing.
Once I had the players ranked, I then assigned their new ratings. The range of ratings I used depended on whether the attribute in question is a Technical or a Non-Technical attribute (in the case of Pace, it is a Non-Technical attribute). I will explain the difference in a moment (see below), but what I'm trying to explain here is that when re-distributing attributes, the actual order of where players are (in terms of who is best and who is worst) is the same or very similar to the order in the v6.0 DB. With the exception of those players I have aged, there shouldn't be all that much difference between the v5.3d DB and the v6.0 DB in terms of who is best and worst in re-distributed attributes (which formed the vast majority of the updating work I did).
There are however two caveats I want to explain (well, one caveat and one more of a note):
1. I did the re-distributing on a position by position basis. Thus I re-distributed the goalies, defencemen and forwards separately. I did this on the assumption/argument that there should be an equal spread of talent between positions in relation to attributes. This prevents us having the situation where all of the forwards are faster than the defencemen, etc.
2. Strictly-speaking I didn't quite use a ranking system, but more of a points system which took into account the various weighted sub-sorting I did. But it's easier to explain it as a ranking system for present purposes.
RE-RATING/RE-DISTRIBUTING THE ATTRIBUTES (PART 2)
Now that I've explained the difference between re-rating and re-distributing, I just wanted to make some final comments:
When re-rating the players, I followed a very similar methodology to re-distributing. It's just that when re-rating, I didn't use the existing attributes as the main starting point for ranking the players. But as with the re-distributing, I re-rated the attributes on a position by position basis (i.e. the goalies, defencemen and forwards were re-rated separately) in order to maintain an appropriate spread of talent.
Another reason for doing things on a position by position basis is because obviously certain attributes should be rated more highly for certain positions. For example, Faceoff attributes should be typically higher for forwards than defencemen. The Faceoff attribute was also rated more highly for centres than wingers.
THE TWO TYPES OF ATTRIBUTE: TECHNICAL AND NON-TECHNICAL
Now that I've explained how the attributes were re-rated/redistributed, I'll explain about the two types of attribute.
How the players are rated for a particular depends on whether the attribute is Technical or Non-Technical. See the two headings below for more detail.
Something I found when working on the NHL goalies is that their non-goaltending ratings were highly overrated and didn't follow the correct guidelines. I have re-worked many of these attributes so that they correctly follow the distribution designed for EHM. I didn't however alter goalies' Pokechecking to the correct level because it seemed to undo the effects of the realism patch.
1) Non-Technical Attributes
Regardless of the CA of the player, the full 1-20 range should be used. Thee attributes are NOT related to CA.
For any league in the game, there should be a good spread/distribution of Non-Technical attributes. Most players should be clustered around the middle (i.e. the most common ratings should be 10s and 11s) and few, if any, players should be at the extremes (i.e. 1 and 20). In theory, if you take the average rating of any Non-Technical attribute for all players in any given league, the average should be approximately 10.5.
There are some exceptions to this rule:
1. Some leagues may have certain characteristics which merit a slightly different distribution. E.g. the LNAH would typically have higher ratings for Aggression.
2. For many Non-Technical attributes, goalies should have a different distribution. E.g. goalies should have an average-to-low Acceleration rating and an average-to-high Agility rating.
This is how the Non-Technical attributes are supposed to be set in EHM and this is how I did it for the NHL update. As mentioned earlier, most of the work on the Non-Technical attributes involved re-distributing rather than re-rating.
Below is a list of all Non-Technical attributes in EHM (those with an asterix indicate those that do not quite follow the standard 1 - 20 range). I have put in bold underline those which I updated. Note that for Consistency and Temperament these were adjusted en masse as part of the realism patch work.
[table][tr][td]
Acceleration [/td] [td]Important Matches[/td] [td]
Stamina [/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Adaptability[/td] [td]Injury Proneness*[/td] [td]
Strength [/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Aggression [/td] [td]Leadership/Influence[/td] [td]Teamwork[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Agility [/td] [td]Loyalty[/td] [td]
Temperament [/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Ambition[/td] [td]
Natural Fitness [/td] [td]Versatility[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Bravery [/td] [td]
Pace/Speed [/td] [td][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Consistency* [/td] [td]
Pass Tendency* [/td] [td][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Determination[/td] [td]Pressure[/td] [td][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Dirtiness [/td] [td]Professionalism[/td] [td][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Flair [/td] [td]Sportsmanship[/td] [td][/td][/tr][/table]
2) Technical Attributes
These attributes ARE related to CA.
However, contrary what was mentioned once or twice earlier in this thread, NHL players shouldn't have all Technical attributes of at least 10. That's not how Technical attributes work in EHM. If you take that approach, NHL players will appear too perfect (and this was in fact an issue with EHM 2004 and 2005 which resulted in a change in the way the CA and Technical attribute systems work in EHM 2007).
For any given player, the average of his Technical attributes relates to his CA. However, there should be some variation of +/-6 attribute points for each player. Following on from the CA table I posted earlier on, here is how the Technical attributes should be rated as per the four key CA levels:
[table][tr][th]Descriptor[/th][th]Minimum[/th][th]Average[/th][th]Maximum[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]Top[/td][td]190[/td][td]7[/td][td]13.5[/td][td]19[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Good[/td][td]160[/td][td]6[/td][td]12[/td][td]18[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Average[/td][td]120[/td][td]4[/td][td]10[/td][td]16[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Poor[/td][td]100[/td][td]3[/td][td]9[/td][td]15[/td][/tr][/table]
For example, the average NHL player should have a 120 CA. This means that his Technical attributes should average 10, but each individual Technical attribute can range from 4 - 16.
This is the approximate guidelines EHM will use to adjust a player's Technical attributes if you try to under-rate or over-rate a player. If you create a player using the Editor and give him a CA of 120 and all Technical attributes set to 20, you'll see that when you start a new game in EHM his Technical attributes will be greatly reduced and will be line with the rules above.
NHL players aren't perfect and they should therefore have a range of Technical attributes. They shouldn't all be rated 10+ otherwise they'll be over-rated and too "perfect". When re-rating and re-distributing Technical attributes, I have tried to adhere to these rules by using a range that is more appropriate according to the player's position and according to the range of attributes that should be expected according the NHL range of CAs. Typically I have used a 5 - 19 range with the most common ratings being in the 9 - 12 range (which follows the sort average Technical attributes we should expect for most NHL players - as per the table above).
The range used for goalies depended on the type of Technical attribute being rated. For goalie-specific attributes (e.g. Glove and Blocker), a 7 - 20 range was used (with 7 - 12 being the most common ratings). Slightly lowered ranges were used for non-goalie-specific Technical attributes (e.g. Passing).
Below is a list of all Technical attributes in EHM. I have put in bold underline those which I updated. You'll see I haven't re-rated/re-distributed every Technical attribute category. Unfortunately I ran out of time.
[table][tr][td]Agitation[/td] [td]
Fighting [/td] [td]
Reflexes [/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Anticipation [/td] [td]
Glove [/td] [td]Slapshot[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Balance/Skating [/td] [td]Hitting[/td] [td]
Stickhandling [/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Blocker [/td] [td]Movement[/td] [td]Work Rate[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Checking [/td] [td]
One-on-Ones [/td] [td]
Wristshot [/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Creativity/Vision [/td] [td]
Passing [/td] [td][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Decisions[/td] [td]
Pokecheck [/td] [td][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Deflections[/td] [td]
Positioning [/td] [td][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Deking[/td] [td]
Rebounds [/td] [td][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]
Faceoffs [/td] [td]
Recovery [/td] [td][/td][/tr][/table]