NHL Defensemen Ratings, TBL Rosters 2013-14

[Mr.Pickles]

If you think that the sample size for Trouba is too small then I can understand that. He's definitely not playing like Zdeno Chara but he's been a solid. I think he's playing like an average #4 guy now and his potential is huge (whether he hits it or not is not guaranteed). He is solidly in the Jets second pairing and I have to disagree with your assessment that they are below average as a group. The Jets are a below average team overall because they don't have a legitimate first line of forwards (no truly elite guy to be found), their second line is Kane and a rotating center and winger, and their bottom six forwards are terrible (filled with waiver wire pickups and other castoffs). Their #5 and #6 defenseman are average #5 and #6 defenseman at best but their top four are in the top half of the league IMHO. Their starting goalie (Pavelic) is literally basically the worst starting goalie in the league.

I look at it this way, simplicity speaking, given thirty teams there are thirty #1 defensemen in the league. I would put Buff as part of that group based on talent. Offensively he is arguably in the top three in the LEAGUE, defensively he is much lower but not the train wreck people make him out to be. Like you said it's the mental and effort side of things. If possible, overall I would rate his talent as a top ten but bring his performance down by keeping the non technical attributes lower than average. Personally I have found that it's hard to set his ratings to a level where he produces points like in real life, the AI will usually bump him down the depth chart too much.

Even on a top tier team I don't know who else you would put on the powerplay besides Karlsson and maybe Subban? He shouldn't go near the penalty kill though.

For the record I'm not a huge fan of Buff and I'd like to see him traded to get some prospect and/or forward depth but he's critically underrated sometimes.

Enstrom is a #2 guy but he's an elite #2 guy. Bogo is nowhere near the top 20 in the league right now. He's been #4 on the Jets this year behind Buff, Enstrom and Trouba. His 150 rating is a tad high for right now but he's been injured a lot again and played a lot on his off side to accommodate Trouba being on his natural side on the second pairing.

Ranking the Jets defensemen this year I would go:
Buff
Enstrom
Trouba
Bogosian

Ellerby
Clitsome
Pardy
Stuart

So to be fair I'm not that much of a homer that I think all the Jets defensemen need bumps. I think Buff and Entrsom need small bumps (especially on the defensive side of things), Trouba needs a bump from 110 but maybe not to 135 yet, but Bogosian, Ellerby and Stuart are overrated currently. Bogosian could pick it up if he stays healthy so no problem with keeping him there, but the other two definitely need to be dropped down (Stuart a lot).

I know that rating young players is always going to be a tricky thing and I don't want to overrate everybody either and have them all turn into franchise players. But one thing that I've noticed is that the elite rookies have tended to under perform in the TBL rosters compared to their real life counterparts. I think some of that has to do with not fleshing them out as they need to be. For example, their CA and PA may be a good approximation, but their staff attributes and other non-technical attributes are not adjusted, many are left at a low number or 0 and get generated as a low number.

That is obviously speaks to the demand for greater volunteer researcher efforts which hopefully this new roster set will spark more of. I hope that nobody takes offense to that statement as I am very much appreciative of all the long hard work that goes into these rosters, it's obvious it's too much work for one or two people alone.

[batdad]

I look at it this way, simplicity speaking, given thirty teams there are thirty #1 defensemen in the league. I would put Buff as part of that group based on talent

YEs you can look at it that way. Technically they are. But that is not how you look at it to make the game accurate.

For example.....

List all the #1 dmen on each team. Tell me that those are the top 30 dmen in the league in terms of how they should be rated for EHM?

Really?

Wrong...that would make every team have an equal defensive core. All their #1s would be the same, all their #2s would then follow to be the same...etc etc.

And to say Buffy is a #1 dman...sorry but I watch the Jets too on a regular basis, as I do with all teams....I likely see every team in the league once per month, some twice and VAncouver way too darn many times.

Buffy is not in the top 30. No way no how. And yes...Buffy mental stats kill him. BUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT HOW TO RATE HIM IN THE GAME OF EHM.

1. His size already gives him an automatic advantage in the game. You have to counter that. And even when you do if you give him the elite potential....he turns into a 50 point dman. And he is not...and even if he was he would be getting most of those as a forward...where he hates to play. His attitude is horrible, his positioning is worse and he has no sense of what is going on in a game around him. None whatsoever.

He is an amazing specimen of physical skills...and that has thrown NHL scouts, junior scouts and just about every hockey person into a lather over him...as he is doing to you as a Jet fan, and as Edler does to zillions of Canuck fans.Y
But Buffy is well past his development stage ow..he should be at the elite stage of being a defenseman or on the verge of a giant breakthrough ....and that is not happening. Not even with one of the better leaders in the league on his team in Ladd.

I am afraid that your theory just does not work. IF Buffy was the #1 dman on any team I was the GM of....I would fire myself immediately. Both in EHM and in real life. Not good enough. Nowhere near. and Enstrom is another one who is one side of the game. More brains than the lazy Buffy...but not the size and specimen. But he is also not a TRUE NUMBER 1. A TRUE NUMBER 1.....is few and far between....and there are barely 30 of them, if there are that many.

As for the game...elite status is 180 and up. Buffy is nowhere near that. He is in Bieksa/Edler land. somewhere between a 2-3 with the ability to rubbish out into a 4 or 5 on any given day, and sometimes for days or weeks in a row.
Enstrom may be top 30...but near the bottom. Nogosian is not there either.

I can name 30 off the top of my head better than all of those

[Mr.Pickles]

I gotta disagree with most of that.

I said simplistically, some teams have two guys better than Buff some have none. You are vastly underrating him, he's not a franchise player but he's a number one dman.

And you are just wrong (no offense) , go back and check the stats, he is a 50 to 60 point player on defense, consistently top four for years now. He should be that in the game (not that I know what combination of ratings actually get him there).

He is elite technically and one of a kind physically. When he is determined nobody can get the puck from him. His skating and positioning is fine defensively, he gets into trouble because he pinches and gets very lazy.

He belongs with the elite offensively but average defensivley with poor mental and work rate attibutes. Overall should mean he's not elite but a #1 guy with 50+ points.

If you think Bogo might be top 20 in the league but Buff nowhere near top 30 you haven't watched enough of this team.

[CJ]

Well Buf plays over 26 mintues per game. Winnipeg wouldn't give that much icetime for someone who wouldn't be the best D-man in the team or would they? Enström is the only one that can challenge Buffy in tearms of #1 D-Man in Winnipeg. And then there's Bogosian who's an ok D-Man, and Troube that might be a lot better in the future...

[archibalduk]

I was just unsure whether you meant you felt Webber was top 5 of all players for the Jets or top 5 defencemen in the league.

I think he is referring to Shea Weber, not anyone on the Jets

Ahhh I see! I saw the double B in "Webber" and assumed he was referring to some Jets prospect I hadn't heard of!

[Lazion]

Some suggestions or Flyers dmens:

Flyers Hal Gill seems to be overrated (150) - drop his CA around 30 points.
Nicklas Grossman is underrated (120) - rise 10-20 points.
Luke Schenn and Andrej Meszaros (140) are slightly overrated and they need small tweaking.. I would say -5-10 for Schenn and -10-15 for Meszaros.
Also rise Mark Streit CA (135) by 5-15 points.

[Primis]

Well Buf plays over 26 mintues per game. Winnipeg wouldn't give that much icetime for someone who wouldn't be the best D-man in the team or would they? Enström is the only one that can challenge Buffy in tearms of #1 D-Man in Winnipeg. And then there's Bogosian who's an ok D-Man, and Troube that might be a lot better in the future...

This is similar to DET's situation. Ericsson is playing top pairing with Kronwall... but that doesn't mean Ericsson is a top pairing d-man. The choices behind him are DeKeyser, Smith, Kindl, Quincey, and Lashoff. That means Ericsson is there almost by default, and after this season I'd expect DeKeyser will have likely surpassed him once he's gotten games under his belt.

Byfuglien wouldn't be a Top pairing d-man on a lot of teams. I'm sorry, he just wouldn't be. He's probably a second-pairing guy when it comes down to it. Put Byfuglien on say STL or CHI and tell me where he'd slot on those corps.

[Mr.Pickles]

I fully agree he wouldn't be a top paring d-man on a lot of teams, but on a lot of teams he would be. St. Louis and Chicago are stacked, they are elite teams, his offensive ability would not be able to compensate for his slightly below average to average defensive ability on those teams and he wouldn't get 26 minutes a game no.

Both those are elite teams and offensively he has out produced every defenseman on those teams so any coach would be stupid if he wasn't given first line power play minutes on those teams. Five on five he would not get first pairing minutes and he wouldn't play on the penalty kill. He wouldn't be on the ice much when trying to hold on to the lead in a tight game either, there are better shutdown options.

Look, bottom line, for the sake of realism he has to be rated appropriately to be a 50+ point defenseman because HE IS a 50+ point defenseman. That is not debateable, his perceived defensive shortcomings are. Despite all the talk that he is a liability defensively though the advanced stats indicate that he has a net positive impact for this team when on the ice.

[Peter_Doherty]

How are we going to make Karlsson a 70+ point defenseman? thats a harder task then to make big buf good because of his size

[Mr.Pickles]

That's true.

Karlsson is usually at the top of the list in my defensive scorers. I might play the game in an odd way though. I use the realism patch and a do about half and half full sim and quick sim. I notice more realistic stats for the league's elite players that way, I don't know how it affects the league averages as a whole though.

[Peter_Doherty]

That's true.

Karlsson is usually at the top of the list in my defensive scorers. I might play the game in an odd way though. I use the realism patch and a do about half and half full sim and quick sim. I notice more realistic stats for the league's elite players that way, I don't know how it affects the league averages as a whole though.

For me he's usually a 0.5-0.6 PPG guy in all my saves. Not a big sample though.

[batdad]

Dropping the Buffy stuff. Want guys help on the db and not the way to go to slam their opinions. Buffy is not a great player IMHO and never will be. He is a #1 dman only by default on the part of the Jets to get a good dman.

Last I will say about it.....no team will ever be a winning team with Buffy in their top 4.

As for making Karlsson a 70 point guy...highly unlikely you will be able to do it unless you turn him in to a forward. We can get him MAYBE as high as 50....but it is up to the user. May have to double shift or overload the dmen, or use all 8 slots and play him in 1st and 6th spots...and then again on both PP units.

Likelihood is though...injury will get him and still not happen.

[Mr.Pickles]

Le sigh.

Buffy is not a "great" player. But he is great offensively. In his past 233 games his production prorates to 17 goals and 58 points in a season. This has all been on defense. Only Karlsson compares with that.

Again, my goal IS realism. The goal should be to get him to approximate that kind of offensive production in the game by adjusting his ratings appropriately.

[Primis]

I think Byfuglien is at least 3 or 4 on most any team still. But he's an example still of a guy who try to get away with instinct/reaction, and not enough vision/prediction.

The original point was that the #1 d-man on a bad team doesn't mean he should automatically rate in say the Top 50 or 60 in the league. I remember DET's defense a few years ago when their Top 4 were Lidstrom-Rafalski, Stuart-Kronwall. Stuart-Kronwall could have been a top pairing on a good 3/4 of the other teams in the league at the time, and there were stretches they WERE DET's top pairing due to injuries. At one point of those 4 Stuart was the only healthy one, and DET still was fine. You can't look at a guy being first-pairing on Team X in a nutshell. When a guy is the lone good d-man on a team and is still elite, it clearly shows (like say Suter).

[Mr.Pickles]

I agree with the principle that a number one defenseman on any team should not be automatically rated in the top 50 or 60 in the league.

I would rate the Jets top four as above average though, not great but slightly in the upper half overall. This is when they are all healthy which they have not been at the same time much since being in Winnipeg.

That Detriot defense was ridiculously elite and I agree pair two could have been line one on many other teams.

Buff is never going to be a true #1 guy played in all situations on an elite defensive core. I have never said that nor am I implying that. For a contender with depth though, he could absolutely make a positive contribution with his skills and he could be sheltered so that his weaknesses would be limited. See Chicago's cup run for example (even though he was primarily a winger at the time), they didn't need him to be on the ice all the time in all situations. He played his role and he was put into situations where his strengths would shine and weaknesses managed. He absolutely contributed to putting that team over the top and made Chris Pronger his b**ch. On a team like Winnipeg when he is relied upon too much his weaknesses are exposed far more often. While it is true that Winnipeg's depth is far shallower than Chicago's cup team was, this is mainly due to injuries than it is the Jets having a below average top four defense. Enstrom has had injury issues since the team has been here, Bogosian has barely played, Trouba missed a lot of games earlier this year. It means Buff plays too much against the top lines of the other teams and on the penalty kill and he should not because he's not above average as a shutdown player (those are roles for Bogosian, Enstrom and Stuart, and last year Hainsey when they are healthy).

But he is a legitimate elite offensive option to be used on the powerplay and would still produce offensively even on a team with overall elite defensive depth like Chicago and St. Louis because he would still get lots of powerplay time. HIs puck control is great and he has a cannon (100 mph).

Anyway, I feel I've hijacked the thread too much so I'll stop posting about Buff and let others comment on the teams and players they follow. Again I just think he has more proven himself to be a 50+ point defenseman at the NHL level at this point. I appreciate all the civilized discussion.

[batdad]

BEst to leave it go is right.

I may be guilty of trashing Buffy. Sorry. He is not horrible. He is just not a star...not elite. He is good not a stud.

We have to look at this outside the bubbles of our own teams. Nino and the position posts is correct. Look at it from a league, and if you feel uncomfortable doing so we understand...I sometimes do as well..

But to make this totally right...we have to work within the limits of the coding of the game, and the size issues and the lack of dmen scoring issues that the coding brings us.
Have a look at what I posted in the LW thread about the process of getting this right...it is not simple...it is not going to work if we just use our own biases...which we all have to our own or home teams.

We need to work outside the bubble, which is all I am really saying when I respond about individual players such as Buffy, Kunitz, etc.

Where do these guys....playing at their current level....fit in within their positions in the whole league. Regardless of our personal feeling towards guys like Crosby....where do they fit? No matter how much we hate Sid the Kid...he is the best Centre in the game right now. Period. No matter how much we hate Henrik Sedin and Daniel...there is more to what they do on the ice than jsut their technical skills...

BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY...HOW DO WE RATE THESE PLAYERS SO THAT THERE EFFECTIVENESS IS SHOWN TO ACCURATELY WITHIN THE GAME OF EHM? ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CODING CANNOT BE MADE AND WE MUST LIVE WITHIN THAT BOUNDARY WHILE IMPROVING THINGS WITH WORK AROUNDS ON THE CODING.

So...outside the bubble, work outside coding to get things accurate, add in compensations to players to make things right (upgrade or downgrade) BY POSITION NOT BY OUR OWN TEAM.

[Mr.Pickles]

It is interesting that I am defending Buff, I slag him all the time to others. As I said I would like to see him traded to enhance overall team depth but we would be giving away a very unique player.

If that's the best way to do it, comment on the league and not specific teams, then I can focus on that.

The issue is that I'm comfortable talking about maybe the top 50 per position with some knowledge but after that I would have no idea how to rate players from teams other than the Jets and a couple others. What is the best way to flesh out these types of depth players? At that point do we not have to involve people with some knowledge of specific teams? Obviously there needs to be quality control or yes the danger of ratings inflation would be high.

[batdad]

What I would love to see is a list that is maintained by say one person of all the players in a position.

That list would include all the players in the NHl at that position.

Then those players would be ranked....and people could comment in the position thread on what they know about that guy...then the sheet could be filled in by the person in charge of that position.

Then it could be put in the game.

of course..disagreement will arise about various players and where they are on the list, and each individual skill. and the final researcher who is controlling this would then decide where that info goes into the program and how to weigh the differing opinions.

Then that sheet could be maintained over time and we could then make changes in the future as a player develops and dies off.

Not sure if that is the way to go, but it is a start.

For instance...list all the goalies like nino did here. Put in a spreadsheet like nino did here.

All info in the goalie position from every person. Research person weighs the info and comes up with what works for that player, with the top researcher having final say on the guy.

Problems would be

1. Some will end up feeling not listened to.
2. Some will think that researcher messed things up.
3. Some will disagree who is the best goalie and who is the 2nd best goalie.

But...that is always going to be there, and it may be the best way to get things accurate without killing people and work.

So say for example we started this right away....

Give everyone two weeks to give in info on players after the original list and order is posted.

Then after two weeks close down the comments, and fill in the sheet.

Run the sheet by everyone... give a week for comments.

Close off the comments and finalize the sheet

Archi then inputs into the game.

And in a month we have the league updated to where we think it should be.

A month later open it up to review again.

Do it all over....

[CJ]

Byfuglien wouldn't be a Top pairing d-man on a lot of teams. I'm sorry, he just wouldn't be. He's probably a second-pairing guy when it comes down to it. Put Byfuglien on say STL or CHI and tell me where he'd slot on those corps.

You misunderstood me. I didn't say he would be a top D-man on the most teams (I know he wouldn't, I'm not halucinating). I was only stating that he gets most ice-time in Winnipeg that's all.

BTW IMO it seems he plays PP just because he has a powerful slapshot...

[nino33]

jjnhl68 said in the LW thread...

I'm not sure how to feel about so high rating of Hejda, Orpik and many other defensive D...

I thought it worth saying...
- it's been noted that Orpik's CA was supposed to be reduced and this was not done before release
- it's been noted that the CAs were/are "a work in progress"

AND it's important to realize that rating CA is just the first step in the process!
While a top/good defensive D may have a high CA, their offensive Attributes will not let them the be the same player as a similarly rated "regular" D.
For example, even though things are a WIP Hejda and Orpik both already have much lower "key offensive Attributes"

Archi posted very good explanations of the re-rating/re-distributing reasoning being used on Dec 30 http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... 30#p163730 and Jan 1 http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... 9f#p163932 - also linked to was this older thread http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... 110&t=5334


Regards

[coombs14]

Thoughts on the Ottawa Senators:

Erik Karlsson: Already discussed the problems with making him into a 50 point (or even a 70 point) player. The only slight quibble I have is that his pokecheck and positioning should be much higher. Yes, he does make risky plays which involve him getting caught sometimes but his defensive zone positioning and stick work are excellent. Karlsson's ability to separate a forward entering the zone from the puck without being overly physical is quite impressive. Karlsson's problems defensively come from being out muscled down low by stronger players and I think his stats reflect that in the game. It isn't from a lack of skill.

Chris Phillips: Overrated in the game in my opinion. His CA should be closer to 140-145 not 155. He is maybe a top 4 dman. Certainly a few years ago this ranking would be correct but his game has gone downhill pretty quickly. He still is capable of playing the PK and 15 minutes a night but when he is forced beyond that (due to Ottawa's truly terrible defensive core) he struggles.

Mark Methot: Should be slightly improved. I actually think that Methot and Phillips should essentially be switched. His CA should probably be 150-155 which would put him in the top 75 in the league which I think is about right. While he isn't actually a number 2 defenceman (he just is on Ottawa because they have a weal d corps) on a good team he would be a serviceable member of the second pairing. I feel that people will object and say that he benefits from playing with Karlsson but last season he played excellent without his Swedish partner (well enough to be invited to team Canada's camp) and this year has played a large amount of time with Eric Gryba or Joe Corvo, particularly during Ottawa's current winning streak.

Jared Cowen: Right ranking however I think his hitting should be improved and his poke-check lowered. Cowen's biggest problem is exceptionally poor positioning in the defensive zone and bad decision making at the offensive blue line. This may improve and he could yet become the shutdown man fans are hoping for. He could also become a fringe 5-6 guy.

Marc Borowiecki: Despite being from my hometown, he is terrible. The Senators organization is high on him because of a very high work-rate but I am skeptical. HF lists him as a possible 5-6 dman but I think he is more of a number 7 guy.

Patrick Wiercioch: Has the potential to be a number 3-4 offensive defenceman. While older than Justin Schultz or Jake Gardiner I think he is on par in talent with those two. Cue Leafs fans yelling at me... Also the guy got hit in the throat with a puck and almost died. That should count for something right?!

Eric Gryba: A number 8 defenceman on any good team. Honestly, he just isn't very good. I think that he should be ranked below 110 on his CA.

Joe Corvo: He is terrible and his numbers reflect that.

Cody Ceci: He is currently listed at 90 which I think is to low. He is playing on the Senators right now and has gone above Borowiecki, Gryba, Corvo and even Wiercioch for good reason. His play has been quite amazing for a 19 year old kid. He is not overly physical despite his size but has a good stick, is positionally very smart and also offers a decent offensive upside. I would say that he should top out at a CA of 160 if he continues to develop properly.

[batdad]

Thanks for the information....where exactly on the list of top 50 defensemen would they fit. In other words how do these guys fit in on the list of all defensemen in the league. It is nice to rate guys individually on their own teams and all, but how realistic the game is would depend on them accurately being portrayed in comparison to the rest of the players in the league in their position.

IE Chris Phillips--does he fit in with say Hal Gill (Ie big and slow now losing it) or does he still fit in with the average #4 type defensemen such as Rob Scuderi, Willie Mitchell, etc.

[coombs14]

Quick context for my previous comments:

Phillips: On par with Douglas Murray, Bryce Salvador, Corey Sarich or Scott Hannan. All are between 140-145 CA. Hannan last year was the number six dman on a good Sharks teams. I think that if Phillips wasn't on Ottawa that would be about right for him.

Methot: On par with Nick Shultz, Tim Gleason or Rob Scuderi. Solid defensive defencemen, all with a CA of 155.

Marc Borowiecki: Listed as having a CA of 125 which puts him as on par with Jonas Brodin, Travis Hamonic, and Andrew Alberts. All of whom are better than him right now and I think have a lot greater potential. I think that he should be more on par with Buffalo prospects Brayden McNabb or Mark Pysyk.

Patrick Wiercioch: On par with Gardiner and Shultz as a promising offensive defenceman with a suspect defensive game.

[Peter_Doherty]

Almost all defensive D-men are overrated in the database right now though, don't know if there is a balance issue and thats why. If not a balance issue then almost all defensive D-men will be nerfed down. Douglas Murray and Bryce Salvador shouldn't be 140-145 for example, they are not a good number six dman on a good team

[Mr.Pickles]

I agree that the defensive defensemen seem to be overrated as a whole (if just considering their CA and not their specific skills).

There is a group of players 140 CA+ (such as those just mentioned) who I would not characterise as "good". Good to me is second pairing when many of these guys are third pairing and should fall within an "average" grouping.