NHL LW Ratings, TBL Rosters 2013-14

[batdad]

no I think he is saying Crosby skates just fine...just not a speedster. he is a very very good skater, but will get beaten by the fastest guys out there...

Just saying...that he excels at everything, plus has knowledge, but may not be the best at each individual thing, and does not have to be when you combine all that he brings.

I think for now we keep it simple and go by ranking by position. If we wish to later break it down even more that is something that could be done.

This of course is all pending Manimal and Nino and archi agree with my ideas.

We should be grouping in terms of CA and what their average ratings should be as that is how they gain and lose reputation in EHM and how it results in them achieving their PA.

Note I say what their average ratings should be. Alex Burrows has a hard time in the game getting over a 7. And he is someone who should be getting at least a 7, and mostly 8...so average would be 7.5 plus.

That has to do with the coding as well..size issues and also more defensive players not being rewarded. Brooks Orpik should still get 7 ratings and some 8 and 9 per game....but not always 4 and not always 10.

[alexchl]

I'm not really buying the need for a magic attribute, no matter how you explain it. I agree that Crosby makes everybody better, but that's why he should have maxed creativity, flair, deking, and so on, and most of the players currently with 18-20 in those stats should get nerfed. Every single attribute makes your linemates better, so there's no need for a "magic" attribute.

This term magic can be used describing most of the really talented players. You can use it describing Joe Thornton, although his strengths are a bit different than Crosby's. He's without a doubt the best playmaker in the game, and if this is properly shown in his attributes, he will make a lot of very good passes, that will keep putting his linemates in very good positions, where they have a higher chance of keeping the puck in the team, and a higher chance of scoring. In other words, Thornton having extremely high numbers in some attributes, will make his linemates perform better than they would if they played with a less talented centerman. For Crosby it's the same thing. You don't need a magic attribute, you just need to make sure that his dominance is properly shown in his attributes, and I don't think it is. Just look at the current point standings.

Crosby 62
Kane 54
Getzlaf 47
Kunitz 46
Thornton 46
Then there's 10 players behind Thornton, within a mere 5 point difference. Malkin and Stamkos also have really good PPG avg's.
Crosby is really in a league of his own when it comes to offense, and I'm not just talking about this season. Look at last season where he almost won the Art Ross, despite playing only 75% as many games as his competitors. Crosby is a lock for the Art Ross trophy, as long as he's healthy, and there's really no player out there who will be able to challenge him in the next 5 years. Crosby is greatly undervalued in the current roster, or rather, most of the franchise players are overvalued.

[Peter_Doherty]

Kreider should probably have 20 pace, anyone who saw him make 4-0 against the Leafs just now knows

Edit: To balance it his acceleration should be lowered though, takes him a few strides to get going so 16-20 instead of 18-18? Small thing though, just got blown away by his pace when seeing it

[archibalduk]

Is Kreider the fastest or the joint-fastest skater in the NHL? This will determine whether or not he should be rated above 18 for Pace.

[Peter_Doherty]

Is Kreider the fastest or the joint-fastest skater in the NHL? This will determine whether or not he should be rated above 18 for Pace.

For top speed i have not seen anyone thats faster, of course he gets beat on shorter stints by the likes of Hagelin and Grabner. I want to reiderate that its not a big deal though since he is fast already, i just got pumped up yesterday when he scored I do however think he is the joint-fastest skater in the NHL.

[jjnhl68]

Batdad, I need your help to understand this conversation.

Kunitz has higher rating so Pinguins could benefit from it and be as good as they really are.
But what if they sell Kunitz?
Than his rating wouldn't be so realistic for his new club, as it will benefit from unrealistic Kunit's rating?
Shouldn't this rating thing be done outside of clubs standpoints, as you have mentioned earlier, speaking of Byfuglien?

Also, I'm not sure how to feel about so high rating of Hejda, Orpik and many other defensive D...

Thanks

[archibalduk]

Batdad, I need your help to understand this conversation.

Kunitz has higher rating so Pinguins could benefit from it and be as good as they really are.
But what if they sell Kunitz?
Than his rating wouldn't be so realistic for his new club, as it will benefit from unrealistic Kunit's rating?
Shouldn't this rating thing be done outside of clubs standpoints, as you have mentioned earlier, speaking of Byfuglien?

I recommend you read this thread: http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... 45#p164211 - See the headings entitled "The Crosby/Kunitz, etc Chemistry/"Magic" Point" and "Rating by Team or Rating by the Entire League" as they answer your questions.

Also, I'm not sure how to feel about so high rating of Hejda, Orpik and many other defensive D...

See the "Reconciling Defensive and Offensive Players" section via the link above. Also, Nino has made a useful summary of the recent posts which have explained this already:

I thought it worth saying...
- it's been noted that Orpik's CA was supposed to be reduced and this was not done before release
- it's been noted that the CAs were/are "a work in progress"

AND it's important to realize that rating CA is just the first step in the process!
While a top/good defensive D may have a high CA, their offensive Attributes will not let them the be the same player as a similarly rated "regular" D.
For example, even though things are a WIP Hejda and Orpik both already have much lower "key offensive Attributes"

Archi posted very good explanations of the re-rating/re-distributing reasoning being used on Dec 30 http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... 30#p163730 and Jan 1 http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... 9f#p163932 - also linked to was this older thread http://www.ehmtheblueline.com/forums/vi ... 110&t=5334


Regards

We really need to move on from going round in circles on these issues. This link explains what is important right now - and it is this we really need help with right now.

[coombs14]

Montreal, Ottawa and Vancouver wingers (I am doing them all together because its easier as the spreadsheet does not separate wingers into right and left). I may be missing a few and some may be less thought out than others but I wanted to get this posted. So here we are:

Daniel Sedin: I agree with the rating. He is one of the elite LWs in the league. What is particularly impressive about him is his vision and intelligence. For that reason I think that his CA will remain pretty consistent for most of his career.

Max Pacioretty: I agree with his current rating. I however, think that his PA should be 170, not 150. In terms of possession numbers Patches is an elite level left winger. I also don't think that he has reached his ceiling yet due to a series of injuries and too quick a return. I certainly understand the possibility of him regressing but I think there is an equal possibility that he could improve an equal amount. I don't think it is unreasonable to put him on par with Sharp, Ladd or Parise. Certainly his numbers put him on par with Parise this season and have him ahead of Ladd and Sharpe. Plus, since his PDO is at 99.8 its entirely reasonable to think that his current output is sustainable.

Alex Burrows: As discussed with Kunitz, Burrows has to be made something special to make him into the 30 goal scorer that he can be when on the Sedins' wing. 155 puts him on par with Lucic, Simmons, and slightly below Callahan and Dustin Brown. That seems right to me.

Bobby Ryan: I agree with his PA ranking of 165 but I think that he should be higher to start the game with. If you look at stats for the past five years Ryan has more takeaways, goals, and points than any other American but Kane. He also has more hits than everyone but Brown. Now, say what you want about real time stats but Ryan ranks highly in every statistical category. In terms of ability he is on par with Max Pacioretty and not that far off Phil Kessle. Kessle has better play making abilities but Ryan scores at an equivalent pace and plays a much more physical game. True, he does not play on the PK but to argue that he is a defensive liability is incorrect. There is zero statistical evidence to support that. For example, he is not a possession leader in the league but routinely faces other teams top two lines and comes out as a positive possession player.

Milan Michálek: A fast, strong defensibly responsible winger who can sometimes score a lot of goals but most of the time just frustrates because he has all the talent in the world and doesn't put it together. Similar players are Radim Vrbata or Martin Erat. I would put all three of them at the same CA (they range from 145-155) as they both have talent and are responsible in their own end but also display tremendous inconsistency. I would think that 150 would be right for all of them.

Bryan Gionta: A fast, small player with a good shot and strong defensive instincts. I would think that a useful comparison (despite being much shorter)is Mike Cammalleri (150). I particularly think that either Cammalleri should be lowered or Gionta raised or both put at 145. Both have put up roughly equivalent numbers throughout their careers and are small, skilled guys. However, Gionta is also able to be used on the PK where as Cammalleri's game in his own zone is suspect. In some ways that makes Gionta more useful even if Cammalleri maybe has more high end potential.

Cory Conacher: I think that his current CA is slighty overrated at 140. I also think that his potential should be -7 not -6, which would put his overall career trajectory as being a third line/pp specialist with a CA of 140 or so. Right now his 140 puts him on par with other established offensive winger such as Brian Gionta and Grabner as well as prospects such as Yakapov. I know that as of right now I would be much happier if Ottawa had any of these players on their top lines as opposed to Conacher. That being said, I think his potential has been demonstrated both with his play in Tampa and his recent play over the past 10 games in Ottawa. I think his potential could well be somewhere in the range of Brad Marchant (similar nasty streak as well) or Nathan Gerbe.

Rene Bourque: Is exactly the same as David Booth.

Jannik Hansen: Currently rates at 140 with a PA of 150. I think this is right given the season he is having. He is one of the better defensive forwards in the game and can contribute offensively but is not given much of an opportunity to do so. If you look at his point per 60 minutes he is in the top three most seasons for the Canucks. I think that him, Higgins, Clutterbuck and Lee Stempniak are comparable players and all, other than Higgins, have a CA of 140. Hansen, of those three, also has the greatest potential which is right.

David Booth: Bang on, this guy is way over paid for what he brings to the game. I know he scored 30 goals once but after a series of concussions he is no longer the same player he was. 135 seems correct. That puts him on par with Chris Stewart or Drew Stafford, all of whom I think have very similar offensive attritubtes. Stewart has greater potential though and that is right.

Chris Higgins: I think should be raised slightly. I see him as being slightly more offensive than Clutterbuck and Stempniak and on par with Hansen. Higgins is consistently a 40 point player in the league. 140 is probably right.

Clarke MacArthur: I think that his numbers need to be much higher than they are. I think that Macarthur is clearly a top 6 winger and is one of the better two way left-wingers in the game. He has consistently put up between .5 and .7 points per game in his last four seasons and is on pace to reach 60 points for the second time in his career. I think that Curtis Glencross or Ryan O'Reilly are good comparisons as both have well rounded games and a CA of 155. I feel like this might be a controversial statement so if people would like to discuss this further I'm happy to!

Brendan Gallagher: 135 seems right right now. I think that his potential though should be a -9, not -14. He has established himself on Montreal's top two lines and has demonstrated an ability to produce at the NHL level. I think comparable young players are Tyler Ennis and Cory Connacher, both of whom I would say Gallagher is better than.

Colin Greening: I agree with his CA and PA. My only point is that Greening is way to slow. This guy in terms of speed, power and balance is one of the top 15 in the league. It isn't just me saying this, as multiple scouts opinions also concur. For examples, from the Hockey News, "Also displays speed." Anecdotal, I would say that he is the fastest Senator, even above Karlsson. His problem is he is relatively passive for such a big man and seems to have poor vision on the ice. He isn't any more than a 3rd line player who can maybe move up in a pinch but he is a VERY VERY fast third line player.

Travis Moen: I think Moen should be slightly lower at 125. That would put him on par with Craig Adams, Drew Miller, Ryan Jones or Erik Condra. Moen has slowed down in the past couple years and is a forth line forward at best with a strong defensive game.

Zach Kassian: I have no idea what to think about him. I think that his potential should be -8 instead of -9 as I have my doubts that he will ever turn into anything more than a 3rd line guy. I actually really don't know what to make of him. Thoughts?

[batdad]

Max Pacioretty: I I certainly understand the possibility of him regressing but I think there is an equal possibility that he could improve an equal amount. I don't think it is unreasonable to put him on par with Sharp, Ladd or Parise. Certainly his numbers put him on par

Ladd is on par with Patrick Sharp? Not even close. Pacioretty and Ladd should be a step below Parise and two steps below Sharp. Sharp is becoming an elite winger in the league, if he is not one already. Ladd, Parise and Pacioretty are not elite and are strong, but not elite.

Patrick Sharp would compare as a step (slight step) below Daniel Sedin. Sharp excels at every part of the game with the exception of speed, which is still very good, and although not an elite speedster he is above average.

Ryan..... it works like this Kessel greater than Ryan, Ryan equal to Pacioretty. All 3 below Sharp and Parise fits in with Kessel.

Bang on on Michalek..up and down, no steadiness to career at all, and in fact I think is on his final descent into oblivion along with Vrbata. (BTW--Vrbata is always very good in this game at start up and needs a kick in the pants)

Cammi and GIonta are the same player..just okay. Great comparisons there.

Conacher and I hate to say this..is not Brad Marchand. He is Matt Cooke with some offensive upside that Cookie does not have and never had. Again, a good comparison and in terms of where he fits in in the grand scheme of things...AWESOME!!!

Hansen--potential is what he is. He is not going to start scoring, and he is not going to get better. He is a good 3rd line guy and that is all he will be. Higgins and CLutterbuck are good comparisons, but I believe Higgins is and will always be the best of those three players. (by a slim margin due to the fact Higgins can score at times)

Booth--Bourque. LOL> well done. Both suck and nowhere near what they could be and should be.ANd I thing in both cases i is due to a well below average hockey IQ.

Ryan o Reilly in the same sentence as Macarthur and Glencross? Nope sorry cant buy that. O"Reilly save for the speed has Ryan Kesler like potential. Macarthur and GLencross are nowhere near that. I agree that they are similar (mac and glen)....but not to O;Reilly. ROR is going to be a strong #2 centre on a decent team. Mac and GLencross will if ever be on a 2nd line will be wingers on weak teams doing that job because noone else is able to.

Gallagher--30 goal future. point per game guy with upside for a little more. And he is a prick. He fits in as a top level 2nd line guy and weak top line guy (team weak or strong) in the future. Potential is not quite sky high, but it is up there with the likes of O Reilly.

Greening-speed sucks in the game. as fast and maybe faster than Hansen, but that is exactly the type of player he is. A third line guy at top end with a little more toughness than Hansen. He is not faster than Karlsson....Karlsson is just so darn smooth you do no notice it. Bascially Greening and Hansen are the same guy.

Moen bang on with him. Although I Think Drew MIller is a little better player than you mention there. Scott Thornton is another comparable for Moen, although Scott is tougher.

Kassian--He will be a 2nd line version of Todd Bertuzzi....if his darn coaches ever let him just play the game instead of insiting he be a checker type b4 allowing him to play the game offensively. 25 goal...35 upside. Kid is clearly that type of player...fits in with the guys with 25 goal, 100PIM types potentially. Right now....he is a third line guy with ability to play 2nd line once in awhile....so power forward on the where a guy like Backes was at age 22. Remember it takes these guys longer and Backes was horrible at 22 in many people eyes. Did no do the things he needed to.


AGAIN UNBELIEVABLE WORK COOMBS. We may not agree on everything...but dude awesome.

[philou21]

I think Gallagher is still inconsistent though but hey, it's just his second season so....

[CJ]

Yeah, great work Coombs. Keep it up!

[ElPayaso]

I think Dustin Penner needs an improvement after his season so far, he is currently ranked third in the new db in my "team report", after Winnik and Maroon. Most (incl. myself) would probably say he's the best LW in the Ducks roster. I would improve his shooting, he also looks to be in a better shape physically and he works harder. I would rate him about the same level as Stålberg, Saad, Umberger, Fleischman and so on...CA140-150.

[CJ]

I think Dustin Penner needs an improvement after his season so far, he is currently ranked third in the new db in my "team report", after Winnik and Maroon. Most (incl. myself) would probably say he's the best LW in the Ducks roster. I would improve his shooting, he also looks to be in a better shape physically and he works harder. I would rate him about the same level as Stålberg, Saad, Umberger, Fleischman and so on...CA140-150.

I'm gonna take a look at what CA I've given him now.

EDIT: Yeah we think a like then. Dux #1 LW with a CA within your given range.

[philou21]

I haven't touched Penner in my DB and first season he finished with 83. I think he is alright as he is. The guy as been so inconsistent in his career that he shouldn't be improved because of 40 games played this season. At least that's what I think.

[batdad]

I somewhat agree with Philou. In EHM Penner is always going to over perform because of his size. The better ratings we give him the crazier he gets for points. I am playing with a different db where he is very average in terms of his attributes ( I do not look at CA PA unless posted here)...and he is well on his way to 50 goals and 90 points.

I do not think anyone would suggest that Penner is a 90-100 point guy at any point. There have also been games I believe this year where he has been a scratch.

So...you have to watch for him, as he always out performs his attributes.

I would not worry about where he is on a team report, and just watch how he does playing on a top line. In my game he is 4th on my depth chart...but is playing on my top line and PP and is succeeding well beyond where his attributes show he should. What matters is performance and comparison to other LW around the league not comparisons to the likes of Patrick Maroon.

Where does he fit in? Becuase if you jack him up too much (and I would argue 150 could make him Ovechkin like) he ends up playing like Daniel Sedin and Alex Ovechkin points wise.

Comparables for him around the league would be?

[CJ]

Well I'll do it the other way around. Having him as a 130 CA in ducks. Will place him in 3rd line, or maybe 4th line depending one how the game chooses to use him, will end him up with probably 20 points (and that's not the kind of player he is, if we want to be realistic). CA doesn't automatically mean they'll score a lot more points. As there are other attributes in a player than the offensive. But I get your point(s).

[philou21]

Just drop his consistency alot it should do the trick I think. Or at least try it.

[batdad]

On pace for 55 points this year. 2nd in his entire career to one year in Edmonton. Rest o the time averages approximately 30 points. Sounds to me like at best he would be a tweener between 2nd and 3rd line. and the big boys just score more in EHM regardless of line they play on. But...it is up to the guys doing the work. If looking for accuracy I would not want a guy like Penner getting 1st line minutes in games because he is rated too high. I would want the other guys on his team lowered...but the other part of it is

How are players assigned to lines by the AI? I always thought it was based on reputation as to what line the AI puts them on and how much ice time they get, not by CA or the AGM depth chart. I know it is absolutely NOT the AGM depth chart, as that depth chart is how the USERS Assistant GM views that team roster, not the AGM of that team.

FOr example when I control the CAnucks and view the AGM Report for the Ducks...it is the CAnuck AGM viewpoint not the Duck one that I see. You actually cannot see the AGM Report of the Duck AGM unless you control the Ducks...and it changes from AGM to AGM. It has nothing to do with how lines are assigned for players by the AI coaching staff.

And from the game I have going.... he was never playing on 3rd line for any team he was on. Ice time was always over 20 minutes....

Just saying that if you up his CA too much he is going to be a big ass scorer in the league. My guess is 130 for a guy his size might allow 50 or 60 points. He has scored over 60 ONCE and 50 only twice (including the one 60 plus year) in his 9 year career if you include this season (2009-10 in Edm and this year on pace). I dunno..just do not see him being rated as a 1st line type for any team. Maybe the guys ranked ahead of him in the Duck depth chart for LW in game need to be lowered.

Again..who does he compare to? Have to be careful with guys like him or it can easily get out of hand with him being way too good.

[coombs14]

Bickell (Ca of 130) or Clarkson (CA of 145)

Clarkson and Penner have remarkably similar career stats except that Penner puts up better assist totals throughout his career. Bickell scores a little less but plays a similar game. Penner probably is to low but I think that Clarkson is probably too high given that he has one good year and a few good months for Jersey last year. I think 130 for all three is probably right.

Also, to go back to my previous point about Clarke MacArthur... he is rated at 130 to start the game while Clarkson is at a 145. I think we can all agree that MacArthur is better than Clarkson?

[Peter_Doherty]

The problem with comparing Penner and Clarkson is that Penner is much bigger, which translates to playing ALOT better in the game. If the AI coaches go by reputation when they pick their lineup then i think thats the only boost Penner needs. I do agree that MacArthur is underrated in the game tho.

[batdad]

No...I am not sure that we can agree McArthur is better than Clarkson. They are both just plain average third line guys. One is bigger and stronger and the other has better hands. Skating is about the same. 6 of one half a dozen of another. Penner is (should be) a better player than both. But he has not shown that, and the size issue of EHM is an issue.

Macarthur is decent, Clarkson is decent (although overhyped because of his salary and Toronto stupidity, but do not slam him too hard for that), and Penner is just okay.

Penner--very average 2nd line Winger.
Macarthur-average third line winger, with some upside to 2nd line.
Clarkson--average 3rd line power winger, with upside to 2nd line.

Look at the teams Macarthur plays minutes for and scores for....how do those teams do? Not that well. So .... they need to upgrade and get something better than him to fill his minutes.

Clarkson on top 2 lines is not good either.

Penner--playing on a top line right now, and look where his team is. But really a 2nd line guy.

[coombs14]

When I have a little bit of time I'm going to post a detailed defence of MacArthur.

Why? Because I like arguing about hockey!

[batdad]

LOL. Be my guest. But would he be a 2nd liner on a team like Anaheim? LA? Even Edmonton for crying out loud....