Eventual NHL Expansion

[XenHL]

Oh and for the record, I have family in Vegas so I know the city pretty well, have spent a lot of time there (oddly enough I have hardly explored the Strip, though!)

[batdad]

Avs have worked when Rockies did not. Winnipeg working (admittedly for different reasons) when did not before.

It is not necessarily the case these markets will work guys...it is where they are looking to expand. And they will.

Fort wayne will not be on the radar. No way no how. They will stay in Florida before go there.

[XenHL]

Okay but it's the why of it I don't get. WHY Vegas when everyone knows it will fail; WHY NOT a place with a proven hockey culture like Fort Wayne?

[batdad]

How much money in Vegas? how much in Fort Wayne? Not saying will go to Vegas, but would be a lot easier to find a billionaire owner.

[Primis]

Fort wayne will not be on the radar. No way no how. They will stay in Florida before go there.

Fort Wayne is laughable as a suggestion.

There's a reason Fort Wayne has never gone back to being a "AAA" market, and has stuck at "AA". I live close enough that I go to Fort Wayne off and on for various reasons.

The town is a good pro minor town because there is NOTHING else to compete w/ in town. IUPUI is the big college in town, and they're not a draw for athletics. The Tincaps do well for minor baseball, and there's a pro minor basketball team there as well but the Komets are THE draw, because they are the only established thing going on in that season. It's a very fair-weather town though: unless the Komets are winning titles, they don't draw well after a while. They haven't won a title now in a couple years now and attendance has dropped back off. Fans want to go, drink beer, and watch a team win a title. Otherwise, they really don't show very well and have no patience whatsoever. It's a tough sell unless there's a banner raised at the start of next season. That's part of why they avoided being the ECHL for so long and tried every other league.

The Komets have a deal with the Coliseum (owned by I believe the City, or maybe the County) they play in. For every event they draw over 5,000 people for, they don't have to pay rent that night. We know the Komets fudge attendance numbers to always stay over that magic 5,000 mark (their own reporters even have noted numerous times that they claim 5 or 6,000 when it's clear there may be 3,000 in attendance that night). Secondly, at a certain point the City would not continue to give the franchise that "deal" anymore, and the franchise would financially become less-feasible -- they might demand 7 or 8,000 as the mark,, or simply demand rent every night, period. Also: Fort Wayne fans HATE affiliated hockey, which is why they've never made the jump to AHL and have tried to avoid affiliating in the ECHL and CHL.

Essentially, Fort Wayne is about 100% tapped out as a hockey market. They can't really draw more fans out of the market, and even as a minor pro team they have to constantly win Cups or else the fans don't come. That's all been "proven". This is before we even get into the fact that the Komets ownership is notorious for breaking league rules (and even spat with the PHPA) to even get where they are.

Fort Wayne is also a market of like 500,000 people max. That ain't very big at all, and only half that is actually in the city. You're talking the size of a Toledo, Ohio basically, and that market is already pretty SPLIT between Chicago Blackhawk fans and Detroit Red Wings fans.

[XenHL]

Ah, thanks for that clarification! I just assumed that since they've been around forever...

...but I still think it a better idea than Vegas all the same. Nascar is about the only thing that will work in that town. If you put an NHL team there, you may get some Air Force guys out from Nellis, guys from like Michigan or NY or Boston out to see their team beat up on the locals, or visiting tourists (though that's not that likely I don't think unless the tickets are cheap). I went to a couple of Thunder games and it was not great... though Radek Bonk did once get mentioned in a local paper. Phoenix is a better market than Vegas.

[philou21]

Vegas would be the biggest joke ever seen. Just stupid hype because it's "Vegas". There's fans of slot machines not hockey. Worst distraction ever for the players they'll be addicted to gaming within a week.

[XenHL]

Well they did used to have a... I don't even know what you'd call them, basically amateur team (maybe they got paid like $20 a game) who played against other travelling teams, called the Aces, played at the ice rink in the Santa Fe Hotel. I know Manon Rheaume played a game or two with them. I think tickets were like $5 and the couple of games I went to there were like 30 or 40 people there.

So hey, maybe they can make it look like it works, build an arena at a hotel, include a pair of tickets free with each room booking, free drinks for everyone attending, and have the stands alternate: one row seats, one row slot machines...

[Primis]

RE: Vegas: The Las Vegas Thunder used to draw pretty well in the old IHL.

Here, have some hockeydb numbers:

http://www.hockeydb.com/nhl-attendance/ ... p?tmi=6524

Concerns with Vegas are that its economy has tanked since then. The ECHL Wranglers just lost their arena/venue who no longer welcomed them back, and a downtown casino is building a new arena to house them. So minor pro has not done well there since the demise of the Thunder.

Even then, Vegas makes more sense than say Fort Wayne.

[Tasku]

So hey, maybe they can make it look like it works, build an arena at a hotel, include a pair of tickets free with each room booking, free drinks for everyone attending, and have the stands alternate: one row seats, one row slot machines...

Hey, yeah, I'd go dr... watch that game!

[rocker87]

I must say this... if it's Vegas in combination, why not Hawaii or Alaska? Sounds pretty much better option then Vegas. Only if you got free tickets when you got married by Elvis.

[Primis]

I must say this... if it's Vegas in combination, why not Hawaii or Alaska? Sounds pretty much better option then Vegas. Only if you got free tickets when you got married by Elvis.

Venues. Sullivan Arena in Anchorage is a nice little arena, but... not for that level, and not nearly enough capacity or a market. It's kinda' a perfect NCAA and ECHL town.

Hawaii has no venue whatsoever, not even in Honolulu. And if it's December and you have the choice of the beach and waves.... or going inside a rink to watch a hockey game, what are *you* choosing?

Vegas potentially has the money and venue at least, not sold about the actual market.

[rocker87]

That should be a bit sarcasm post, even I don't know enough about Vegas as city of their own population, I would never go to Vegas to watch hockey. Also, if anything before even worked good enough for Vegas, why would hockey? I think they got a lot of better options then Vegas.

Even with someone who will pay all those things to have NHL team there, I don't think NHL want to have a team with 50% empty Arena, or worse. Especially when we all know how "good" expansion teams are in the begining.

Seattle looks like nice city for that, Canada can't be mistake, even they have second attempt in Winnipeg and they need to see how it goes there.

Vegas is cool for nice amount of money for start and that's all. I'm not one of those who don't like new markets, but honestly, I don't think it's good idea.

About beaches, I had perfect beach 200 metres from my house and I was there probably 10 times in last 5 years life there. It's not interesting for me. But mostly, hockey games are from 7 mostly, probably later for Hawaii.

It'll be interesting to see, if expansion comes this year, how it would affect 2015 draft with McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Hanifin, Barzal, Pylon, Gropp, Franzen, Sandstrom... wow, that will be a nice draft.

[Primis]

I love hockey. But I've been to Hawaii (Oahu and Maui), and I sincerely cant imagine spending any time there at a rink instead of doing, I dunno', everything else. It's an amazing place. I don't know how college kids go there for a basketball tourney at Lahaina on Maui every year and ever make it to a practice or games. The bad thing about going to Hawaii is every place else seems less somehow by comparison.

Seattle would be a first choice, as would Houston, then Kansas City I guess maybe (not entirely sold on them yet). I think both Seattle and Houston could handle NHL teams. Houston in particular has supported AHL/IHL teams very well for quite a long time now, and the instant rivalry with Dallas would benefit both.

[Animal31]

Ive said this about 40 McDavid-ing times now, but I really hope it comes to frutition.

TO NHL:
Seattle
Portland

TO AHL:
Seattle
Californian

The Heat are dying out here in the west, and we need a good rival. Move the comets close by, we can give up our territory rights, we dont care; put them in vancouver. Kill the Barons, put them in Idaho. Expand the AHL into a combination of Seattle, Portland, and California. Boom, you have and actual western division. They want hockey out west, and this is the best way, hell it may be the only way

the winterhawks are great, and sell out, and have an NHL sized arena, they can double up. Seattle is pretty much getting an NHL team, so they need an AHL team to go along with it. NHL in Seattle and Portland helps out the canucks too, more rivalries worth driving to see, hella ticket sales.

This helps out everyone invovled

[Primis]

The Heat are dying out here in the west, and we need a good rival. Move the comets close by, we can give up our territory rights, we dont care; put them in vancouver. Kill the Barons, put them in Idaho. Expand the AHL into a combination of Seattle, Portland, and California. Boom, you have and actual western division. They want hockey out west, and this is the best way, hell it may be the only way

Any AHL expansion will likely first take place in SoCal (Ontario). If and when the Coyotes move, you can bet the AHL will move in to that market as well. I'm actually a bit surprised Ontario hasn't gone AHL already. The move up worked well for Charlotte. I also expect that in a few years Orlando is going to be on the radar for the AHL along with possibly Atlanta/Gwinnett to create a southern division.

Idaho does okay for an ECHL maket but I don't think Boise is AHL-capable. Same for Utah/Salt Lake City. Same for Anchorage/Alaska. Colorado maaaaaaybe. The Eagles do well there. Rapid City of the CHL could eventually land an AHL franchise I guess, but they'd have to move to the ECHL first and prove themselves a bit more. AHL western expansion is inevitable. There's very little in the way of markets east of the Mississippi that the AHL could expand to, and there are options to the west.

I don't feel sorry for Abbotsford though. Abbotsford has no business being in the AHL whatsoever in its current configuration. This was no bigger load of complete and utter bullsh*t in sports than that old North division that stretched from Rochester, NY out to Abbotsford, BC. It was a joke. If they didn't want to stay in Quad Cities that was perfectly understandable, but voluntarily moving your affiliate across the continent to the middle of your rival fanbase's country and then crying about poor attendance/how badly you need to not be on an island deserves no sympathy whatsoever IMO.

In the east, Fort Wayne *is* potentially an AHL market (probably the strongest one), but there are obstacles to overcome first including the fanbase's own prejudice against affiliated hockey (there will be no going it Independent in the AHL). It a shame that fanbase issues and stupid ownership have left them out of "AAA" hockey for so long, honestly. If they simply changed ownership, they'd probably be in the AHL tomorrow.

Toledo maaaaaaaaybe. I've lived there, and there's a extremely strong and loyal hockey fanbase there dating back to the old Storm (as awful as the Walleye are and have been, they continue to draw well even). Ideally if they went to the AHL though they'd have to cut all ties with Detroit and take on Columbus' affiliation (or maybe Chicago's if Rockford fails) because Detroit is not leaving Grand Rapids any time soon, and that's tough to swallow in a market where most are Red Wings fans.

I love Cincinnati fans but.... the support just isn't there consistently and I don't know if AAA hockey vs AA would be enough to help it. They can pull 10,000 in for one game, then only 2,500 the next. If they could ever draw more consistently they might be a viable AHL market again.

[batdad]

Quite frankly the only reason Abby is bad ...

Wrong parent club. It would work only if it was Canucks farm team. And the Foame knew that.

NHL will expand to 32 before relocate. Not using up markets. Need 32 to balance. Owners were not happy with imbalanced conferences.

[Primis]

NHL will expand to 32 before relocate. Not using up markets. Need 32 to balance. Owners were not happy with imbalanced conferences.

And because of the imbalance, the expansion will be in the west (barring an Eastern team like Florida relocating west first and mucking things up).

I have to say even with having 15 other teams to struggle against, as a fan it is unreal what a difference playing in the East makes. Those endless long road swings to the west every year with 10:30pm start times are basically gone, and man... not having to stay up until 1:30am to watch games is kinda' awesome. I've done that for as long as I can remember, and... I'm not missing it.

[batdad]

ACtually a team from the east relocating west makes the NHL job much easier. I hope it does happen. Then Seattle (which will be banned from relocation) in the West, and Quebec City, Southern Ontario or some dumb arse Buttman city gets a team in the east.

[Primis]

Elliotte Friedman posted something in his 30 Thoughts today:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-t ... selection/

"18. A couple of months ago, I speculated on a Las Vegas expansion team being announced at the NHL Awards. That idea was kiboshed."

I found this interesting. Did some digging on it.

It appears Vegas' ticket drive has not gone so well now. They slowly crept to 9,000 in March, they had hit 5,000 in February. It sounds like maybe the drive has stalled out, as they has cited 13,000 as the probable threshold for success/failure. Thus the league maybe *intended* on announcing something in Vegas at the awards but.... has cooled off a bit on the idea now and wants to wait and see.

[batdad]

NHL wants Vegas bad. Seattle will be there as well eventually. They need the two western teams. it will happen come Bettman or high water. Yeah it has cooled as does everything that has all the hype that Vegas brought originally. But it will happen. Maybe not immediately but within a year or two.

[Peter_Doherty]

Think their arena is set to be finished next spring, so for 16/17 i expect Vegas in the league.

[stone169]

I think Vegas is a bad idea. The only sports franchises they've had have been minor league or joke leagues (XFL).

I'm pretty sure there's good reasons why they've been over looked by the other major leagues, but Bettman is so intent on bringing hockey to areas in the Southern United States that realistically won't support it.

Like anything else, it will be a novelty that will wear off within 3 years and then everyone will be asking why Bettman chose Las Vegas in the first place.

[Primis]

Well the NHL moved the awards show to a larger venue this year. The speculation was that they were going to invite Vegas deposit-holders and then announce the team in front of them at the show, because there was no other compelling reason to move it to a larger venue (interest in the awards show has never been particularly strong). To me, that they won't be announcing it now, after making that move... is maybe a sign of trouble.

Speculation, yes. But isn't it amazing how the talk cooled off and the ticket commits have slowed, and instead the focus has turned to Seattle instead of strengthening Vegas? You'd think Vegas would be in a stronger position.

[Peter_Doherty]

Would make sense that they announce it on the NHL Awards show, but they won't join the league before 16/17 since they don't have an arena before that?