Feedback on the Trade AI

Post by **Peter_Doherty** » Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:03 pm

Hard to say without knowing the PA of those prospects though, but it doesnt look great

Daelh · Post by **Daelh** » Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:32 pm

Peter_Doherty wrote:Hard to say without knowing the PA of those prospects though, but it doesnt look great

They suck. Two third rounders and a second round pick for Malkin...? Another weird thing... Tampa didnt resign Vasilevsky hos currently in his second season in KHL as an RFA... but they wont even trade his rights for 3 first rounders.. And Vasilevsky is not the only one.

ccaskey · Post by **ccaskey** » Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:22 pm

SirMichaelJordan wrote:I think it would be more productive to test AI trading with the default fake rosters.

while also looking at why the team made the move. There's isn't much context in Player A was traded for player B lets riot!

Because of my insane boredom, I have simmed through a season with the default roster and compiled a list of all the trades throughout the season. I have substituted the fake player name for their real name.

The first thing I noticed is, no Marty StLouis fire sale. Also, apart from February, there were 2-4 trades league wide per month.

If you want to see the trades for yourself, the spreadsheet is at https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=f ... lder%2ccsv

Editing is enabled so if you want to reformat it, feel free. Just play nice

Post by **visualdarkness** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 12:11 am

Stray Games wrote:I have not been able to do a single real trade outside of "Offer to all" on a player, and you always get scraps offered through that.

Well, that sounds pretty close to real world realism if you ask me.

m_piedlourde · Post by **m_piedlourde** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:00 am

I'm finding that trade values don't seem to be affected by a player's stats during the season. For example, before the season started I offered Joffrey Lupul. Several teams offered a 3rd round pick with a low-end prospect, and the Red Wings offered Ryan Sproul (decent prospect) and Alexey Marchenko (low-end prospect). I figured I could pump up Lupul's value by putting him on the 1st line with Kessel, and he now has 17 goals and 18 assists in 34 games. I tried offering him up for trade, and... several teams offered a 3rd round pick with a low-end prospect, and the Red Wings offered Sproul and Marchenko. I feel like teams would be willing to offer a bit more than that for a guy who's on pace for 38 goals.

I should also add that I traded Eric Brewer for a 3rd round pick with a low-end prospect before the season started, and I traded Zach Sill for a second round pick. Those guys were both dead weight, so I'm not sure how Lupul's value was so low to begin with, and has stayed so low after such a good start to the season.

sTeeL86 · Post by **sTeeL86** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:05 am

Maybe it doesnt take current form into account?

ccaskey · Post by **ccaskey** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:37 am

The spreadsheet of trades that I posted earlier on is now complete. The players I have identified may not be 100%, but I'm pretty certain that they are (I've denoted if there's doubt).

If someone that knows player values and can decide what makes a good trade wants to look through and see what the AI does on the normal database feel free. Like I said, editing is enabled so you can leave a comment on the bad trades if you want

sluice · Post by **sluice** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 1:16 pm

In general, I feel the AI quite good (Except for a few players that you wouldn't normally see being waved like Matt Greene), but after the first season, I've noticed more and more funny things...

McDavid <> 2019 1st + 2020 1st + naff prospect
Byfuglien <> late 1st (For some reason he's automatically put on the RW position, because he is listed as Natural.. In my opinion, he should be listed as naturel at the RD also...)
Wayne Simmonds <> 2nd + naff prospect
Hudler <> 2nd (after finishing the season with ~1 ppg)
John Klingberg <> Scott Harrington (That deal would of been okay, BEFORE Klingberg shown that he could put up 50 points in his rookie season lol)
Evander Kane <> 2nd rounder + prospect

Hemsky getting traded for a 3rd rounder, after finishing the 2014/2015 season with 46 goals.

Talking about McDavid, he seems to be underrated in this game, he always seems to have a poor 2014/2015 season with Erie. (Playing way under 1 ppg)
Therefore he's easy to land, and can't really produce in his first NHL years. This guy should be UNT and bring immediate production at the NHL level.

Another annoying thing, I'm starting my third career (After the Habs, the Pens, I'm going with Ott), and I feel the same thing is happening over and over. The same guys being traded. The same guys being waved.

Franck · Post by **Franck** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:16 pm

Between the trade deadline and the 2015 draft the Wild have traded away Koivu, Parise, Pominville and Vanek. Only the Koivu trade was reasonable, he brought Byfuglien and a 2nd.

Post by **Peter_Doherty** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:19 pm

Franck wrote:Between the trade deadline and the 2015 draft the Wild have traded away Koivu, Parise, Pominville and Vanek. Only the Koivu trade was reasonable, he brought Byfuglien and a 2nd.

You call that trade reasonable? Buf > Koivu and they added a 2nd

Franck · Post by **Franck** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:48 pm

Peter_Doherty wrote:
Franck wrote:Between the trade deadline and the 2015 draft the Wild have traded away Koivu, Parise, Pominville and Vanek. Only the Koivu trade was reasonable, he brought Byfuglien and a 2nd.
You call that trade reasonable? Buf > Koivu and they added a 2nd

Reasonable for the Wild.

They got absolutely mugged in the other three trades though.

Post by CJ » Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:57 pm

Peter_Doherty wrote:
Franck wrote:Between the trade deadline and the 2015 draft the Wild have traded away Koivu, Parise, Pominville and Vanek. Only the Koivu trade was reasonable, he brought Byfuglien and a 2nd.
You call that trade reasonable? Buf > Koivu and they added a 2nd

You dislike him just cuz he's a Finn, admit it!!

Post by **Peter_Doherty** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 3:49 pm

jhcjobpb wrote:
Peter_Doherty wrote:
Franck wrote:Between the trade deadline and the 2015 draft the Wild have traded away Koivu, Parise, Pominville and Vanek. Only the Koivu trade was reasonable, he brought Byfuglien and a 2nd.
You call that trade reasonable? Buf > Koivu and they added a 2nd
You dislike him just cuz he's a Finn, admit it!!

Actually no, i really dont... he's just not that great, especially this season... Buf on the other hand is an elite off d-man

mike_bayes · Post by **mike_bayes** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:04 pm

I traded Clitsome and a bush league prospoect for Bo Horvat, which obviously isn't right.

RomaGoth · Post by **RomaGoth** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:39 pm

m_piedlourde wrote:I'm finding that trade values don't seem to be affected by a player's stats during the season. For example, before the season started I offered Joffrey Lupul. Several teams offered a 3rd round pick with a low-end prospect, and the Red Wings offered Ryan Sproul (decent prospect) and Alexey Marchenko (low-end prospect). I figured I could pump up Lupul's value by putting him on the 1st line with Kessel, and he now has 17 goals and 18 assists in 34 games. I tried offering him up for trade, and... several teams offered a 3rd round pick with a low-end prospect, and the Red Wings offered Sproul and Marchenko. I feel like teams would be willing to offer a bit more than that for a guy who's on pace for 38 goals.

I should also add that I traded Eric Brewer for a 3rd round pick with a low-end prospect before the season started, and I traded Zach Sill for a second round pick. Those guys were both dead weight, so I'm not sure how Lupul's value was so low to begin with, and has stayed so low after such a good start to the season.

Actually, both Sproul and Marchenko are pretty good NHL prospects. Marchenko has spent some time with the Wings and played really well, probably is a future top-4 defenseman. Sproul is developing slower but has more upside and has a wicked slapshot (google sproul slapshot mitch callahan).

Lupul was always overvalued in EHM 2007 and appears to be in this new version as well. He is a 3rd or low 2nd line player at best and when he doesn't play with another great forward (i.e., Kessel) his numbers are pedestrian at best. I would trade him for either Marchenko or Sproul in a second. He is probably worth more than just a 3rd round pick though.

m_piedlourde · Post by **m_piedlourde** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:11 pm

RomaGoth wrote:
m_piedlourde wrote:I'm finding that trade values don't seem to be affected by a player's stats during the season. For example, before the season started I offered Joffrey Lupul. Several teams offered a 3rd round pick with a low-end prospect, and the Red Wings offered Ryan Sproul (decent prospect) and Alexey Marchenko (low-end prospect). I figured I could pump up Lupul's value by putting him on the 1st line with Kessel, and he now has 17 goals and 18 assists in 34 games. I tried offering him up for trade, and... several teams offered a 3rd round pick with a low-end prospect, and the Red Wings offered Sproul and Marchenko. I feel like teams would be willing to offer a bit more than that for a guy who's on pace for 38 goals.

I should also add that I traded Eric Brewer for a 3rd round pick with a low-end prospect before the season started, and I traded Zach Sill for a second round pick. Those guys were both dead weight, so I'm not sure how Lupul's value was so low to begin with, and has stayed so low after such a good start to the season.
Actually, both Sproul and Marchenko are pretty good NHL prospects. Marchenko has spent some time with the Wings and played really well, probably is a future top-4 defenseman. Sproul is developing slower but has more upside and has a wicked slapshot (google sproul slapshot mitch callahan).

Lupul was always overvalued in EHM 2007 and appears to be in this new version as well. He is a 3rd or low 2nd line player at best and when he doesn't play with another great forward (i.e., Kessel) his numbers are pedestrian at best. I would trade him for either Marchenko or Sproul in a second. He is probably worth more than just a 3rd round pick though.

I agree with your assessment of Lupul in real life, and I'll trust your assessment of Marchenko (I can't claim much knowledge of Detroit's prospects), but I'm not sure that's the case in the game. Marchenko currently has 16 points in 45 games in the AHL at the age of 23, which doesn't suggest a huge amount of NHL upside. And again, Lupul is having a very good season. I guess his cap hit and injury history limit his value a bit (I'm not sure how much injury history is taken into account in the game), but there's no way he's worth less than Zach Sill.

Plus, there's the issue of his value not really changing despite the numbers he's putting up this year. Seems a bit odd.

Post by **Peter_Doherty** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:24 pm

it should also be ALOT harder to trade for a top-10 pick on draft day, it should be almost impossible like it is IRL...

Edit: Oops, wrong thread... Can someone switch this post to the trade simulator thread?

price31 · Post by **price31** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:08 pm

here are some examples of trades i pulled off with the habs.

Weaver, Flynn for S.Despres.

D.Desharnais, T.Gilbert, D.Thrower ,2nd 2018,3rd 2018 for V.Tarasenko

A.Emelin, L.Eller, C.Thomas, 3rd 2016 for T.Myers

PA.Parenteau,M.Reway ,2nd 2015 ,2nd 2016 ,3rd 2017 for E.Kane

Post by **Peter_Doherty** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:10 pm

Yeah, seems like teams dont value Young good (might become elite) players as much as they should...

NessFreaK · Post by **NessFreaK** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:29 pm

In my first year with Carolina, I won the regular season with 116 points, scoring 387 goals (290 against). I was eliminated by the rangers in the second round, after 4-0'ing the Maple Leafs. Lundqvist stood on his head and allowed 4 goals in the entire 4-1 series. I honestly don't feel as though much has changed fro 2007, aside from not knowing the other GM's thoughts on a deal instantly. Here are my transactions going back to my hire:

Post by **Peter_Doherty** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:35 pm

How could you sign Duclair and Zykov? Looks like some kind of a bug where their rights were lost?
And the Andersen, Vlasic and Boychuk trades are definitely unrealistic...

NessFreaK · Post by **NessFreaK** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:41 pm

Duclair and Zykov both lost their rights after the season. Not sure if the Kings and Senators simply didn't qualify offers, or if they refused or what ... but virtually every team in the league made an offer for them both ... I just offered more.

Post by **listro55** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:33 pm

Animal31 wrote:3 out of 4 of my scouts are saying Severson is a 1-2, the 4th is saying 3-4

3 out of 4 doctors also recommend trident. darn Scouts.

Post by **listro55** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:35 pm

NessFreaK wrote:Duclair and Zykov both lost their rights after the season. Not sure if the Kings and Senators simply didn't qualify offers, or if they refused or what ... but virtually every team in the league made an offer for them both ... I just offered more.

This just happened in my Save... Duclair also got let go in my last EHM07 save. But he also turned into a bust.

Post by **listro55** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:54 pm

I've found there doesn't seem to be any room for negotiations. If I offer a trade the AI doesn't like, it's rejected. If I offer something they feel they can approve upon, it's what they want or nothing. For example:

ME:
3rd overall and 48 overall for 6th overall, 35th overall and First next year

Them:
Connor McDavid, 3rd overall and 48 overall for 6th overall, 35th overall and First next year

Me: 3rd overall and 48 overall, 3rd round for 6th overall, 35th overall and First next year

Them:
Connor McDavid, 3rd overall and 48 overall, 3rd round for 6th overall, 35th overall and First next year

Me: 3rd overall, 48 overall, 3rd round, and first 2017 for 6th, 35th and a first next year.

Them:
Connor McDavid, 3rd overall, 48 overall, 3rd round, and first 2017 for 6th, 35th and a first next year.

Basically, they took what ever extra i was offering to remove McDavid from the transaction, and simply added McDavid. I began to remove the future firsts from both sides and it continued to be the same thing. In the end, in order to move up in the second round, I had to settle with dropping in the first alone. It was still a pretty fair deal and it worked out well as I got hanifin at 6th, as well as my guy in the second round, but the time spent "Negotiating" was wasted because there was none. Realistically, I figured jumping to 3rd overall would be huge for them, as it's a difference between a surefire first liner (top 2 dman) and a potential second line player.

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