Official NHL Season 2016-2017 Thread

[Peter_Doherty]

Seems like it's mostly Dreger trying to make a big deal out of nothing? One of the Florida beats is saying that nothing has changed, Tallon is still and has always been one of many voices, not THE voice.

Panthers has played a lot better since Rowe took over, they're just sporting a 95 PDO in that time span, which means their SV% + SH% is really really low, which implies bad puck luck more or less. All their underlying metrics look way improved.

I feel like Dreger is anti analytics and is trying to use his big audience to drive his narrative that the firing of Gallant was bad.

[nino33]

I heard that Tallon is back as the Panthers GM. This team is a joke.

From Elliotte Friedman/Sportsnet on the Panthers current situation http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/pant ... decisions/

The article notes - owner Vinny Viola, reached Wednesday night, indicated nothing has changed.

“As far as I am concerned, Dale has always had final say over hockey decisions,” Viola said by telephone. “What we had done is bifurcate Dale from some things he didn’t need to worry about anymore [negotiating contracts, for example]. But, in terms of player decisions, it is his call.”

Viola’s comments were met with skepticism, since, for example, Tallon would not have supported Gallant’s firing or Erik Gudbranson’s trade. I’ve heard the same rumours as everyone else — about Tallon being pushed aside and losing power in the hockey department.

It’s weird. What I don’t understand is why there would be any report of a change if nothing was different. A couple of other sources suspect it might be to calm down fans, “Canadian media” and possibly players who are not pleased with where this is going.

It wouldn't surprise me if players are not pleased with the team's direction/the owner's actions

[Peter_Doherty]

Making as many big changes as Panthers owners have done in the past years will always be met with skepticism. They're pretty much 'rebranding' the entire organisation.

As always with big changes the players and the fans will get onboard if they show progress, making the coaching change before playing 6/8 games on the road isn't optimal since you win less on the road.

[nino33]

Seems like it's mostly Dreger trying to make a big deal out of nothing? One of the Florida beats is saying that nothing has changed, Tallon is still and has always been one of many voices, not THE voice.

Panthers has played a lot better since Rowe took over, they're just sporting a 95 PDO in that time span, which means their SV% + SH% is really really low, which implies bad puck luck more or less. All their underlying metrics look way improved.

I feel like Dreger is anti analytics and is trying to use his big audience to drive his narrative that the firing of Gallant was bad.

This season under Gallant the Panthers obtained 55% of the possible points they could, under Rowe 38%
I haven't seen/heard what Dreger said, but it seems to me more like the entire "hockey world" (except for analytics people I guess) agrees with Dreger

As we've previously discussed (and you've agreed), there's more to hockey than analytics, and there can be outliers...so far it sure seems the Panthers are a real bad example of analytics in practice (which doesn't mean analytics are bad, but it does seem the owner's preoccupation with them/actions based solely on them might be bad news for Panthers fans and analytic supporters)

[Peter_Doherty]

They've played 6/8 games away under Rowe though, which makes it a really really bad sample. All their underlying numbers look better under Rowe then under Gallant and i think they'll be a better team with the new coach in the long run. As i said, they've been at around 95 PDO since Rowe took over, that's REALLY low and is pretty much pure puck luck (puck unluck in this case).

I think Panthers will be a very good example of analytics in practice if we just give it some time, 8 games with most of the on the road is a terrible sample to take anything from, we can check back after the season and compare Rowe to Gallant.

Dreger just comes across as very bitter in his tweets about Panthers. Feels like he took it personal that some 'math geeks' fired his 'good hockey person'-friend Gallant, that's the feeling i get atleast.

[nino33]

Making as many big changes as Panthers owners have done in the past years will always be met with skepticism.

I disagree. I think "big changes" are more often met with a lot of support when people think they're needed (like in Edmonton/Calgary/Toronto...fans in Vancouver are begging for big changes). Seems the Panthers changes are almost entirely philosophical (and not based on hockey results), they're not "fan driven" or influenced by the "hockey world"


FYI - My posts have not been in response to yours unless I've quoted you; as I'm doing other things right now, it might seem like I'm responding to you when I post after you (without quoting you) but I'm not...

[Peter_Doherty]

I'd argue that changing the whole philosophy of the organisation into analytics is a way bigger change then committing to a rebuild like the Canadian teams.

[ClassicSwarley]

Would anyone know what is the most convenient way of getting data from Corsica into Excel in a readable format? When I download the .csv file straight from the site, it opens in a very jumbled format and I have to copy the content into Notepad and paste it back in, just to get it look readable. Is there any quicker way to do this?

[nino33]

I think Panthers will be a very good example of analytics in practice if we just give it some time, 8 games with most of the on the road is a terrible sample to take anything from, we can check back after the season and compare Rowe to Gallant.

I admire your confidence! (personally, if I was as big an analytics supporter as you, I wouldn't want to "hitch my wagon" to the Panthers)

Dreger just comes across as very bitter in his tweets about Panthers. Feels like he took it personal that some 'math geeks' fired his 'good hockey person'-friend Gallant, that's the feeling i get atleast.

Maybe I'm mistaken, but I've gotten the impression that everyone but the analytics crowd is down on/puzzled by the Panthers and their moves/direction and the way they've done things

[nino33]

Would anyone know what is the most convenient way of getting data from Corsica into Excel in a readable format? When I download the .csv file straight from the site, it opens in a very jumbled format and I have to copy the content into Notepad and paste it back in, just to get it look readable. Is there any quicker way to do this?

Try opening the csv in notepad, change all semicolons to commas (; to ,) using "replace all" and then save/close, and then try opening the csv again

[Peter_Doherty]

I think Panthers will be a very good example of analytics in practice if we just give it some time, 8 games with most of the on the road is a terrible sample to take anything from, we can check back after the season and compare Rowe to Gallant.

I admire your confidence! (personally, if I was as big an analytics supporter as you, I wouldn't want to "hitch my wagon" to the Panthers)

Dreger just comes across as very bitter in his tweets about Panthers. Feels like he took it personal that some 'math geeks' fired his 'good hockey person'-friend Gallant, that's the feeling i get atleast.

Maybe I'm mistaken, but I've gotten the impression that everyone but the analytics crowd is down on/puzzled by the Panthers and their moves/direction and the way they've done things

I'm not hitching my wagon to them, i'll still believe in analytics no matter what. I mean, analytics is such a divider right now that ur either in or your out more or less so i guess what you say is true. The 'analytics crowd' is a VERY big group by now.

The timing of the Gallant firing was odd, other then that most people do understand the move given the difference in how Panthers FO wants to work and how Gallant operates. They probably should have done it in the off season, but that wouldn't have been popular either since they did win their division last season, it was a lose/lose situation for management. But if they think this will make their team better then why wouldn't they do it?

[nino33]

I'd argue that changing the whole philosophy of the organisation into analytics is a way bigger change then committing to a rebuild like the Canadian teams.

Agreed! But many/most/practically everyone doesn't think going "all in" on analytics is a good idea; as we've discussed, there's more to hockey than analytics, they're a tool not the "end all and be all" & it seems the Panthers are going at it as if the math is going to automatically produce results

I'm not hitching my wagon to them, i'll still believe in analytics no matter what. I mean, analytics is such a divider right now

I think almost everyone/everyone uses analytics now...it's the analytics crowd that ignores all the other factors that seems to be the problem IMO (as if hockey can be reduced to math, and analytics "win" every time over everything else - the results have already shown they don't, such as the Kings in 2014-15)

I honestly get the impression that when it comes to NHL Staff/Management it's the analytics crowd that's got more to learn than nonanalytics crowd - I think it's way easier for a "hockey mind" to understand the math than it is for those that know little to nothing about hockey (especially at the NHL level) to understand more than the math (and the Panthers are a good example of this)

[Peter_Doherty]

Actually, there are very few teams that actively use their analytics 'departments', many people that are into analytics who have sources have confirmed this. Teams look at analytics but few teams really use them a lot.

I also think it's a lazy narrative to say that 'analytics people' only use math and numbers, real analytics is done by using numbers AND video. Narrowing analytics down to 'math' is just bad. I don't agree with your last paragraph either, like at all.

This does highlight the biggest issue right now in hockey, how hostile the environment has become and how everything is black or white. I hate how it's like that and it's really bad for everyone.
I think the 'analytics crowd' need to become a lot better at presenting their stats and what not, and i think the 'old schoolers' need to stop being so scared of progress and open their minds a bit. If both those things happen then we'll come to a much better place overall.

[Peter_Doherty]

Bob McKenzie had a pretty good rant about the entire situation here: http://www.tsn.ca/radio/toronto-1050/mc ... t-1.632615

I especially like how he thrashed this black or white thing on both sides of the fence.

[nino33]

Actually, there are very few teams that actively use their analytics 'departments', many people that are into analytics who have sources have confirmed this. Teams look at analytics but few teams really use them a lot.

I don't see how you could know this, as teams aren't necessarily going to go public with what they look at/how they decide things & I was under the impression most every significant analytics person has been hired by NHL teams (aren't all the analytics sites from a couple/few years ago shut down now because the people were hired by NHL teams?)

I suspect the "many people" you refer to are fans of analytics, and they don't have real sources

I think many leading in the charge with analytics seem to think a disagreement means a complete disregard...like the (former) Habs analytics guy that couldn't understand the Subban/Weber trade...if he had better understood how important winning a Cup in Montreal is (and how long it's been since they've won), and how many feel that's more likely with Weber (due to factors that can't be quantified), and how the "window of opportunity" for winning a Cup (with Carey Price) does not open for long, he would have better understood the trade reasoning (even if ultimately he didn't agree)...but instead he came across as if analytics proved it was a bad trade by the math alone

If the Habs actually win the Cup it'll be worth poorer analytics and a bad contract (maybe you don't understand how important that would be in Quebec/for Habs fans...have you noticed the fuss about the trade has completely died down with the Habs winning/playing like they are); Montreal didn't need Subban's personality at all to bring in fans/obtain fan support, and they felt what they needed to win a Cup (not all of which shows in stats) was better supplied by Weber

I also think it's a lazy narrative to say that 'analytics people' only use math and numbers, real analytics is done by using numbers AND video.

I don't see the "analytics people" who have no history in the game (and thus little to no "hockey knowledge") likely being able to use video effectively; I don't think they'd know what to look for/what they're looking at (I also think "scouting" is a lot more than watching hockey, and too many hockey fans think they're far more "knowledgeable" than they are...I don't think "analyzing video" usefully/effectively is easy to do)

This does highlight the biggest issue right now in hockey, how hostile the environment has become and how everything is black or white. I hate how it's like that and it's really bad for everyone.
I think the 'analytics crowd' need to become a lot better at presenting their stats and what not, and i think the 'old schoolers' need to stop being so scared of progress and open their minds a bit. If both those things happen then we'll come to a much better place overall.

I don't think the vast majority of "old schoolers" are scared

Again, the Kings in 2014-15 (and other such examples) show the enormous flaw in using analytics as more than just one more tool for analysis, so it doesn't surprise me that people that have been working/successful in the hockey world for decades aren't massively changing their approach, but that doesn't mean the majority are dismissive (and as something "new" they're not likely to be publicly championing it like those whose sole connection to pro hockey is analytics...part of being "old school" is not being public so much HaHa)

I think the solution is as you say "the 'analytics crowd' need to become a lot better at presenting their stats and what not" and I think the key is the "what not" - the analytics crowd doesn't come across as open at all, more like they're trying to "prove" their worth/value via logical argument...and not only being dismissive/disrespectful to the "old schoolers" in general (especially those that make "unhelpful" quotes) but more importantly their being dismissive of the hockey factors that don't show up in the math is the problem (factors that those "old schoolers" still value)


As always, they're my opinions, "your mileage may vary"



Thanks for the chat, I'm gonna move on now (and wait for our next such discussion! HaHa), and close with this old quote (and my view emphasizes the second sentence)...

Not everything that can be counted counts.
Not everything that counts can be counted.

[Peter_Doherty]

"I suspect the "many people" you refer to are fans of analytics, and they don't have real sources"

I think this is pretty ignorant, why wouldn't the hardcore analytics people know the other hardcore analytics people who got picked up by teams?

"I don't see the "analytics people" who have no history in the game (and thus little to no "hockey knowledge") likely being able to use video effectively; I don't think they'd know what to look for/what they're looking at (I also think "scouting" is a lot more than watching hockey, and too many hockey fans think they're far more "knowledgeable" than they are...I don't think "analyzing video" usefully/effectively is easy to do)"

I also think this is ignorant, you don't need to have played a sport at a high level to understand it and analyze it.

I don't get why you only use the 14/15 Kings when we speak, no cup winner in the last 7 years (maybe longer, don't feel like checking right now) have been worse then 5th (4th?) analytically in the season they won.

Yes, 'analytics crowd' need to be better at presenting their info, but you come across as if it's only them that has to change, which is again pretty ignorant imo.

But fine, let's leave this for now, until next time

Just to clarify, not saying ur an ignorant person, just that you come across as very ignorant on this subject.

Edit: Maybe ignorant is too harsh of a word, put some cushions around it and it's what i meant, just to clarify since we've been on good terms lately

[nino33]

Edit: Maybe ignorant is too harsh of a word, put some cushions around it and it's what i meant, just to clarify since we've been on good terms lately

I appreciate you clarifying; perhaps if you and I can try to have civil discussions despite differences of opinion, those in the media/NHL/etc can too HaHa

My money's on us

[Peter_Doherty]

Haha, i would also bet on us

[CJ]

Usually when you log onto this forum you see a post or two... Then there's always suddenly this marathon conversation with Pete and nino that takes ages to read. Nothing bad with it. As long as you're both being professional about it.

[nino33]

As long as you're both being professional about it.

Professional! We should be getting paid then!

[CJ]

I think it's way easier for a "hockey mind" to understand the math than it is for those that know little to nothing about hockey (especially at the NHL level) to understand more than the math (and the Panthers are a good example of this)

That's always been an issue IMO. Talking about simple stats here. TAlking to a friend who has 10% of my hockey knowledge pointing out how one player or goalie is better than the other one just based on simple stats.

And same goes nowadays with analtyics also IMO! It's more accurate YES than the simple stats, but there's still A LOT more to hockey than that. A reason why I don't argue with Pete as it would lead nowhere.

PS: The more we go into detail/analytic/mathematics into a sport (which happens in all genres over time) the less interesting the sport gets IMO. It's sad but true. And that's a part I will never be a part of!

[Peter_Doherty]

So, i want Cody Eakins head on a stick, what a dirty dirty play. Headshotting a goalie like that... If he doesn't get ATLEAST 5 games then everyone involved in DoPS should get fired.

[Aladyyn]

It's maddening that Rangers didn't teach him a lesson on the ice. Embarrassing lack of reaction.

[ClassicSwarley]

That was a reckless play by Eakins, he definitely should get suspended.

[nino33]

So, i want Cody Eakins head on a stick, what a dirty dirty play. Headshotting a goalie like that... If he doesn't get ATLEAST 5 games then everyone involved in DoPS should get fired.

It's maddening that Rangers didn't teach him a lesson on the ice. Embarrassing lack of reaction.

Actually the Rangers lack of reaction makes sense in modern hockey...charging used to be continuing to stride into an opponent, and what Eakins did was coast into him (albeit at high speed) & it used to be making contact with a player with the puck was legal (and you weren't punished because you were a fast skater, or the player with the puck hung onto it for to long) & (most importantly) players used to assume hockey plays would be made/they'd be hit rather than excepting that they not be hit as if they were preteen amateurs

It's odd to me that an "old time hockey" play causes fans to protest against it with "old time hockey" language...

They're professional athletes, and this is another example of players that are hit requiring "beer league rules" so they're not hurt; Lundqvist is at fault for putting himself in a vulnerable position, and the only option Eakins had (when Lundqvist hung on to the puck for to long) was to stop playing hockey and come to a stop before he got to the puck and watch Lundqvist pass it away from him.....it used to be that goaltenders with the puck outside the crease were treated no differently than any other player

Simple solution to not having the injury potential is either Lundqvist stays in his net or he moves the puck faster, not (at the professional level) that other players stop playing the game of hockey so he can move the puck (like what would be expected in a beer league)

It's amazing to me how the game has morphed into such a non-contact "soft" version of what used to be hockey, so that regularly plays that used to be the responsibility of the person being hit are now considered "dirty" (priorities like don't hang onto the puck to long, keep your head up, don't turn your back on an opponent and be aware don't seem to exist much anymore)

In addition to bad player decisions (putting themselves in vulnerable positions) the hard equipment is a problem (the football style shoulder pads/hard plastic elbow pads), but again professionals apparently need the "protection" and the players themselves don't rally to have the equipment changed



Peter/Aladyyn - I've got no interest in going back and forth on this, so this'll be it for my commenting (we have differences of opinion and I don't see a point in going beyond expressing our views to attacking the views of others/trying to convince others we're right)